Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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24.90 Mark Dreyfus (House of Reps) |
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23.90 Nicola Roxon (House of Reps) |
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22.60 Kate Ellis (House of Reps) |
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22.30 Harry Jenkins (House of Reps) |
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22.20 Brendan O’Connor (House of Reps) |
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22.20 John Murphy (House of Reps) |
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19.70 Laurie Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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17.10 Tanya Plibersek (House of Reps) |
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16.90 Bill Shorten (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Andrew Leigh (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Richard Marles (House of Reps) |
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13.90 Amanda Rishworth (House of Reps) |
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13.50 Simon Crean (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Sharon Bird (House of Reps) |
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12.90 Jenny Macklin (House of Reps) |
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12.70 Greg Combet (House of Reps) |
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12.50 Sharon Grierson (House of Reps) |
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12.10 Stephen Jones (House of Reps) |
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11.70 Catherine King (House of Reps) |
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11.50 Jason Clare (House of Reps) |
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11.00 Mark Butler (House of Reps) |
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10.80 Julia Gillard (House of Reps) |
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9.50 Steve Gibbons (House of Reps) |
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9.20 Gai Brodtmann (House of Reps) |
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9.10 Tony Burke (House of Reps) |
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8.80 Chris Hayes (House of Reps) |
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5.90 Stephen Smith (House of Reps) |
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5.80 Bernie Ripoll (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Steve Georganas (House of Reps) |
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5.40 Craig Emerson (House of Reps) |
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5.30 Rob Mitchell (House of Reps) |
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5.20 Peter Garrett (House of Reps) |
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4.40 Julie Collins (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Shayne Neumann (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Sid Sidebottom (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Warren Snowdon (House of Reps) |
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3.30 Gary Gray (House of Reps) |
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3.20 Wayne Swan (House of Reps) |
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2.70 Joel Fitzgibbon (House of Reps) |
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2.50 Yvette D’Ath (House of Reps) |
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1.80 Mike Symon (House of Reps) |
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1.50 Daryl Melham (House of Reps) |
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1.10 David Bradbury (House of Reps) |
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1.10 Graham Perrett (House of Reps) |
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1.00 Deb O’Neill (House of Reps) |
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0.90 Michael Danby (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Stephen Conroy (Senate) |
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0.00 Don Farrell (Senate) |
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0.00 David Feeney (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Arbib (Senate) |
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0.00 Jacinta Collins (Senate) |
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0.00 Christopher Evans (Senate) |
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0.00 Kate Lundy (Senate) |
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0.00 Jan McLucas (Senate) |
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0.00 Penny Wong (Senate) |
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0.00 Louise Pratt (Senate) |
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0.00 Lisa Singh (Senate) |
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0.00 Glenn Sterle (Senate) |
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0.00 Matt Thistlethwaite (Senate) |
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0.00 Catryna Bilyk (Senate) |
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0.00 Joe Ludwig (Senate) |
ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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20.60 Anthony Albanese (House of Reps) |
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20.00 Maria Vamvakinou (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Anthony Byrne (House of Reps) |
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12.30 Ed Husic (House of Reps) |
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12.20 Janelle Saffin (House of Reps) |
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12.00 Nick Champion (House of Reps) |
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8.10 Alan Griffin (House of Reps) |
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7.80 Chris Bowen (House of Reps) |
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7.70 Justine Elliot (House of Reps) |
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6.90 Robert McClelland (House of Reps) |
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6.80 Laura Smyth (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Martin Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Kevin Rudd (House of Reps) |
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0.40 Darren Cheeseman (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Ursula Stephens (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Bishop (Senate) |
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0.00 Kim Carr (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Furner (Senate) |
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0.00 Gavin Marshall (Senate) |
markjs
Hope so. I am nervous about what he is going to say next
itep
I wonder if more PUblic servants will be speakimg out
Sorry George I missed it who did you take out of the Rudd camp?
OC
It must be doogie. Apparently he is abstaining from voting
Yes, albo and Doug
Nick Champion should go into the Ruddista
Obviously Crikey is clogged because it has been full of shit over the last couple of days.
I can’t find any 2nd reference to Doogie abstaining and I think it unlikely.
SMH’s latest: 65 – 31: 7 undecided
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-v-rudd–the-numbers-20120224-1trud.html?rand=1330045019130
I’d take a >2:1 victory as substantial but I doubt if Rudd will
Of the 7 undecideds the SMH has 4 leaning to JG and 3 including Albo leaning KR
The SMH is asking:
How would you rate Kevin Rudd if he did not stand in Monday’s leadership vote?
That just has so many possibilities
OC
Therein lies the rubb. Rudd needs to be blasted out. Apparently, he will be doing another presser this afternoon. Iis that when he will give his intention re challenge?
OC
I know it should not be personal, but if Albo goes witn Rudd. I will have absolutely no respect for Albo. I really hope not. i pegged him as more honourable and savvy than to back Rudd
victoria….I think Rudd will resign from parliament today…..FWIW
markja
That is my desire. For Rudd to get right out of parliament.
I’d be surprised if he resigned. If he’s going to get about 35 votes, he’ll contest, move to the backbench, continue to white ant and try again by the end of the year. If he still has no support, he might resign then.
markjs
That would be the honourable thing for him to do. Will he do the right thing?
victoria…agree…& I actually think he’s quite unwell mentally and possibly physically. His family will urge him to get out of parliament. It’s not good for him…and he’s not good for it.
Just my thoughts….nothing else
Itep
I thought KR already resigned as FM?
markjs
Agreed. That is why he worries me. He is a loose cannon
By resign I meant resign from Parliament.
Itep
Thanks for clarification.
In regards to the Senator margins, I don’t think it would be possible to accurately come up with them.
However, I think a more appropriate way would be to just mark the ones ‘at risk’, since in all states Labor senators are pretty much guaranteed to be re-elected if they’re on the 1st or 2nd place on the ballot, and in the ACT and NT there’s always 1 elected.
Here’s a list of 3rd place Senators that are most at risk:
NSW – Ursula Stephens (2007)
Vic – David Feeney (2007)
Qld – Mark Furner (2007)
Tas – Catryna Bilyk (2007), Lisa Singh (2010)
Even then, the Senators could be promoted or demoted on the ballot paper, so you never know what might happen at election time.
Also, the margins for the Reps members appear to be wrong, and don’t match up with the margins here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2010
While that list probably isn’t accurate after the Victorian and South Australian redistributions, I don’t think there were any substantial changes, apart from Deakin’s margin being cut in half and McEwen’s almost doubled.
IMO if rudd gets the leadership back, the fibs will stay with the RAbbott. If Caucus re-affirms there support for the PM then the Fibs will quickly ditch RAbbott for Talcum
george
Can you delete my last comment
markjs, your comment at 9.54, intrigued me. Were your thoughts based on the Mendoza interview? That very sane man suggested that rudd was not stabbed in the back but removed for his own sake and that people closest to him tried to protect him, and presumably the country too. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-24/live-blog-labor-at-war/3849716
His wife yesterday didn’t seem to think he should withdraw from public life. As I relunctantly watched Laurie Oakes on http://news.ninemsn.com.au/ I didn’t detect any doubt at all about Rudd’s capacity to rule, though I guess Oakes wouldn’t normally be my choice for wisest political commentator around. I guess he’d have been the biggest conduit for Rudd’s leaks too.
Can’t say I disagree with what Rudd is saying about Abbott right now
Thanks george
markjs
Rudd is contesting
It wasn’t a bad speach.
One thing I’m gonna say here is that I have seen the best selling of the Labor message from both the PM, Rudd, and some other MPs since this has come to a head. What a landslide win Labor would be facing if all these smart people could find a way to wrk together
24/02/12 3:10 PM
george
I did not see Rudd Presser. Just saw tweets saying he will re contest. Can you tell me about his mindset. Is he sounding more rational this afternoon?
Victoria, I don’t think it was a good presser, a bit all over the place (but understandably as he has now realised he won’t be winning the caucus ballot) – one thing though was when he was attacking Abbott and when he spoke about Labor’s successes. These are the things Labor MPs should be talking about.
In his passion to put his points across, Labor’s successes, and do have a few goes at the journos, he basically negated by saying the current Government can’t win. So basically it’s all about “me”. Makes no sense
PM to address media at around 3:45pm
george
Thanks. Hope to be able to watch Julia’s presser, but need to do a pick up soon. My timing is always out!!!
Victoria, George
Rudd is quite mad IMO. I think John Mendoza is correct and it wouldn’t surprise me if Rudd doesn’t have a complete mental breakdown.
Got that wrong…didn’t I??
Good to see that Rudd has been persuaded to stand on Monday.
Now, how was that managed, I wonder.
janice
The caucus should realise that and vote overwhelmingly against him. He really needs to get the message that his conduct is damaging the party
PatriciaWA
I hazard a guess. Albo?
markjs
Yes you did.
Does anyone know if antony green is on twitter?
Strong speech by Rudd…but I don’t think it will sway enough in caucus to back him.
Also think it’s a bit rich to compare Rudd and Julia in relation to who is best to destroy Abbott. Rudd and his team of white-anters together with the #MSM and I suspect, some in the Coal have come out and ensured Julia couldn’t get her message out by using strategic leaks.
Rudd’s behaviour has been atrocious towards Julia and the ALP….they won’t be fooled by his pitch to the voters….The man’s a bloody disgrace to politics in this country.
george
No idea
Factions bad but I want factions to elect ministry. Nuts.
George
@AntonyGreenABC
Dan, thanks
Both Rudd and Gillard have now declared that if they lose, they will go to the backbench and not make any further challenges for the leadership.
So that’s it folks.
It’s now a death match.
Winner takes all.
Oz 2/83
myk42
Oz 2/83 What does this even mean?
canasta76
The cricket score?