Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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24.90 Mark Dreyfus (House of Reps) |
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23.90 Nicola Roxon (House of Reps) |
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22.60 Kate Ellis (House of Reps) |
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22.30 Harry Jenkins (House of Reps) |
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22.20 Brendan O’Connor (House of Reps) |
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22.20 John Murphy (House of Reps) |
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19.70 Laurie Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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17.10 Tanya Plibersek (House of Reps) |
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16.90 Bill Shorten (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Andrew Leigh (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Richard Marles (House of Reps) |
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13.90 Amanda Rishworth (House of Reps) |
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13.50 Simon Crean (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Sharon Bird (House of Reps) |
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12.90 Jenny Macklin (House of Reps) |
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12.70 Greg Combet (House of Reps) |
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12.50 Sharon Grierson (House of Reps) |
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12.10 Stephen Jones (House of Reps) |
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11.70 Catherine King (House of Reps) |
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11.50 Jason Clare (House of Reps) |
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11.00 Mark Butler (House of Reps) |
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10.80 Julia Gillard (House of Reps) |
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9.50 Steve Gibbons (House of Reps) |
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9.20 Gai Brodtmann (House of Reps) |
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9.10 Tony Burke (House of Reps) |
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8.80 Chris Hayes (House of Reps) |
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5.90 Stephen Smith (House of Reps) |
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5.80 Bernie Ripoll (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Steve Georganas (House of Reps) |
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5.40 Craig Emerson (House of Reps) |
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5.30 Rob Mitchell (House of Reps) |
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5.20 Peter Garrett (House of Reps) |
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4.40 Julie Collins (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Shayne Neumann (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Sid Sidebottom (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Warren Snowdon (House of Reps) |
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3.30 Gary Gray (House of Reps) |
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3.20 Wayne Swan (House of Reps) |
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2.70 Joel Fitzgibbon (House of Reps) |
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2.50 Yvette D’Ath (House of Reps) |
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1.80 Mike Symon (House of Reps) |
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1.50 Daryl Melham (House of Reps) |
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1.10 David Bradbury (House of Reps) |
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1.10 Graham Perrett (House of Reps) |
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1.00 Deb O’Neill (House of Reps) |
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0.90 Michael Danby (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Stephen Conroy (Senate) |
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0.00 Don Farrell (Senate) |
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0.00 David Feeney (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Arbib (Senate) |
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0.00 Jacinta Collins (Senate) |
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0.00 Christopher Evans (Senate) |
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0.00 Kate Lundy (Senate) |
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0.00 Jan McLucas (Senate) |
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0.00 Penny Wong (Senate) |
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0.00 Louise Pratt (Senate) |
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0.00 Lisa Singh (Senate) |
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0.00 Glenn Sterle (Senate) |
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0.00 Matt Thistlethwaite (Senate) |
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0.00 Catryna Bilyk (Senate) |
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0.00 Joe Ludwig (Senate) |
ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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20.60 Anthony Albanese (House of Reps) |
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20.00 Maria Vamvakinou (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Anthony Byrne (House of Reps) |
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12.30 Ed Husic (House of Reps) |
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12.20 Janelle Saffin (House of Reps) |
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12.00 Nick Champion (House of Reps) |
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8.10 Alan Griffin (House of Reps) |
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7.80 Chris Bowen (House of Reps) |
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7.70 Justine Elliot (House of Reps) |
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6.90 Robert McClelland (House of Reps) |
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6.80 Laura Smyth (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Martin Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Kevin Rudd (House of Reps) |
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0.40 Darren Cheeseman (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Ursula Stephens (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Bishop (Senate) |
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0.00 Kim Carr (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Furner (Senate) |
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0.00 Gavin Marshall (Senate) |
Tania takes on Toolmn:
From Gus:
Mungo on the Leadrrship Challenge – comparing Rudd to Keating.
This person does Midnights= to Dawn on 6PR – and has no clue about how political parties or indeed the Australian Political System operates.
LikeUnlike · · Share · 2 minutes ago ·
Wow.
Just checked back in here after a prolonged absence. Love the graphic display of where everyone stands. Whoever was responsible (Frank, Ru or Finns), hats off to you.
Looking at Stephen Smith (Perth – my electorate) only having a margin of only 5.9%. Before I moved to Sydney, Perth was one of the safest seats for Labor in the country. Even whilst I was over there it still had margins >10%. I remember looking at Anthony Green’s site back in ’07 and Perth was second in safety only to Albo’s seat of Grayndler.
What happened? Was it due to the “cashed up bogan effect”?
It’s George’s handiwork from Finn’s counting.
As for Smith – Cashed Up Bogans and the Mining Tax
Had Kev statyed in 201 0 it wouldd’ve been wall to wall Libs in WA.
BTW, by coincidence, not choice, in Sydney I lived in Grayndler (Ashfield).
I’ve lived all of my adult life in safe Labor seats on both sides of the country. That’s somethng I’m kinda proud of.
Interesting to say the least:
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/white-anting-began-in-adelaide/story-e6frea6u-1226279986128
Frank
Why am I not surprised by that “revelation”?
Anyway, just a brief hit and run appearance on AFV tonight. Bedtime calls. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.
I’ll have what DTT is having:
Newspoll has spoken according to THEIR ABC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-23/labor27s-leadership-war-becomes-a-numbers-game/3848814
add Sharon Bird, Cunningham, to the list of those declared for Gillard.
http://www.sharonbird.com.au/media/media-releases-2012/labor-leadership/
Fantastic job George & Finns putting faces to names…well done folks . It looks great & I will tweet it throughout day
[...] Will keep the tally going as we go along. Please let me know new ones or if i have stuffed up afrankview.net/…/ Labor spill 2012: MPs in quotes, ABC While some caucus members have told reporters who [...]
WHY AINT RUDD DEAD?
Kev Rudd aint dead?
No! Kevin Rudd aint dead!
In Canberra Labor people sigh.
He just will not be told.
He is done for, has been rolled.
The feller just don’t understand, “Goodbye!”
Journalists there dread
When all the world’s in bed
If he’s awake and wants to vent his spleen,
He calls out all the press
And gives a long address
On the evils of the ALP machine.
“We are gathered here today
So I can have my say
On how badly I was done by
And not given all my dues.
No one listened to my views
While Julia Gillard gave me the evil eye.”
“Don’t complain that this is night.
I have to catch a flight!”
But just to keep them pacified
And to earn a bit of glory
He’ll feed them with a story
Making sure they know it’s classified.
And so off they go
And harass ASIO
Whose agents really know him.
With their mates in DFAT
They’d like to join the brass hats
In Defence and find some way to show him!
Why aint Kev Rudd dead?
When each Department Head
And every leftie politician
Have come to hate his guts?
Cos he’s nowhere near as nuts
As that other one in Opposition.
Nick Champion has declared fro Rudd…Via Latika
Nick Champion = Rudd. Said someone put a note on his office window this morning (stuck with chewing gum) to put Rudd back as PM because “the people” voted for him.
janice
I am frankly getting sick of it all. Rudd is hellbent on destroying the Labor party in my view. At this rate, it is likely to occur.
great poem. Although I reckon Rudd is more nutty than Abbott at the moment!!
Good pome, PatriciaWA. The lying, cheating, traitorous and vile little man has betrayed the people, his party and his country.
Janice
The longer this. drags on, the worse I feel about it all. Rudd is a loose canon, but yet he still garners support within the party. He should be chucked out. Not suported.
Victoria, I agree. He won’t succeed in destroying the Labor Party or the government without great resistance from those of us who see the little mongrel for what he is. I have a feeling the fight has only just started and it won’t be long before this “innocent victim” act of his will be shown up for the bullshit it is.
Spokesman for @AlboMP told @SabraLane that the Minister has not yet decided who to support – that’s HUGELY significant. #respill
24/02/12 11:02 AM
This sounds like bullshit to me. I’ve been told Albo will be supporting the PM. Anyone have any other details?
george
I saw this earlier. It is concerning me a great deal. Although this from a bludger
Suspect Albo hasn’t spoken up because he’s beavering away behind the scenes to make sure any damage from MPs resigning from the party etc is eliminated or at least minimised when Rudd is beaten. The government could survive a Rudd resignation but not much more.
Wonder if Oakeshott is trying to flush Malcolm out to lead a breakaway group from the Libs – we could have a coalition government with Gillard as PM, Malcolm as Treasurer, Oakeshott as Minster for Regional Australia, etc. Remember you heard it here first! Stranger things have happened in Australian political history.
janice
I hope you are right, but Rudd’s conduct does not give me confidence. I have absolutely no trust in him at all
George, Victoria.
You know, it has occurred to me that Albo and possibly one or two others who have either supported Rudd or not declared, may be holding off to give hope to Rudd to challenge and not cut and run. He has to have a humiliating defeat to shut him down.
Albanese into the undecideds. Nick Champion for Rudd. 60-18
george
If. Albo is backing Rudd. I am over the Labor party
janice
Agreed, but I am starting to feel very uncomfortable with it all
Abbott opening his big mouth which might not be the wisest thing for him to do – Oakeshotte’s been niggling for the coalition to dump Abbott for Turnbull which has, I think, flushed him out of his gutter.
janice
What is the other wrecker of Australian Politics got to say? Or is it the usual spiel?
Nicola Roxon pulling no punches – telling @Kieran_Gilbert why she won’t work with @KRuddMP if he’s PM again | http://t.co/Cn4L9Pzt #respill
24/02/12 11:17 AM
Victoria, the usual tripe, but he took a swipe at Oakeshotte – said he and Windsor were the ones who got this ??+@# government in office and it is plain that minority governments fail.
btw George. Read somewhere (a tweet I think) that Doug Cameron said he won’t vote for either candidate so will abstain.
What choice do we have Ridd the Wrecker or Abbott the wrecker. This is too silly for words
I am seriously edgy about Albo.
George,
Nicola Roxon is a class act and I hope every voter in the land gets to listen to that interview.
janice
According to some at the other place, Roxon should be ashamed of her attacks on poor little Rudd
Victoria,
Yes, that is what Rudd has been saying as well
janice
I am actually quite surprised by the level of support Rudd. I seriously could not see more than 6 supporters, but the list is growing and Albo is silent.
victoria…If you’re feeling a bit anxious…just tap into Julia’s inner strength…she’s got more than enough to go round
markjs
I am confident of Julia. Rudd is tge one i am worried about. I keep thinking he is going to throw a big grenade!
It looks as if Rudd’s support will struggle to get to 30%…..so I suspect he won’t challenge…should know in couple of hrs IF he declares his intentions then
Ok – have update the list
At least here I don’t have to put with reading the complete tripe put out by the Rudd cultists.
If anyone has a list of seat margins for the senators in the ALP, please place it here
Irep
There are some great posters on PB, but a few there are stinking up the place in a very bad way
More from the faceless men:
“Mr Mendoza now says he quit his job as chairman of the National Advisory Council on Mental Health due to the former PM’s dysfunctional leadership. He says Mr Rudd’s style was erratic, unpredictable and chaotic.
“The Australian public is now starting to understand that he wasn’t knifed in the back. In fact he was removed for his own wellbeing and the government of the country had to function. And I suspect if Kevin Rudd is elected leader of Labor Party next week there will be mass resignations across the senior echelon of the Australian public sector.”
Won’t they just leave poor Kevin alone?
victoria….He’s already done severe harm to Govt…now doing harm to himself. I suspect there will be a huge back-lash against him in the community…with a consequent uplift of respect for Julia.
Julia will come out of this very well…she has at all times conducted herself with dignity…has shown extraordinary courage that I can only marvel at…and is totally loyal to all her colleagues. She will prevail…I’m absolutely certain of that. :)
george
Whoi is off the list now?