Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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24.90 Mark Dreyfus (House of Reps) |
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23.90 Nicola Roxon (House of Reps) |
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22.60 Kate Ellis (House of Reps) |
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22.30 Harry Jenkins (House of Reps) |
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22.20 Brendan O’Connor (House of Reps) |
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22.20 John Murphy (House of Reps) |
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19.70 Laurie Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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17.10 Tanya Plibersek (House of Reps) |
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16.90 Bill Shorten (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Andrew Leigh (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Richard Marles (House of Reps) |
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13.90 Amanda Rishworth (House of Reps) |
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13.50 Simon Crean (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Sharon Bird (House of Reps) |
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12.90 Jenny Macklin (House of Reps) |
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12.70 Greg Combet (House of Reps) |
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12.50 Sharon Grierson (House of Reps) |
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12.10 Stephen Jones (House of Reps) |
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11.70 Catherine King (House of Reps) |
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11.50 Jason Clare (House of Reps) |
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11.00 Mark Butler (House of Reps) |
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10.80 Julia Gillard (House of Reps) |
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9.50 Steve Gibbons (House of Reps) |
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9.20 Gai Brodtmann (House of Reps) |
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9.10 Tony Burke (House of Reps) |
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8.80 Chris Hayes (House of Reps) |
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5.90 Stephen Smith (House of Reps) |
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5.80 Bernie Ripoll (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Steve Georganas (House of Reps) |
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5.40 Craig Emerson (House of Reps) |
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5.30 Rob Mitchell (House of Reps) |
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5.20 Peter Garrett (House of Reps) |
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4.40 Julie Collins (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Shayne Neumann (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Sid Sidebottom (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Warren Snowdon (House of Reps) |
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3.30 Gary Gray (House of Reps) |
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3.20 Wayne Swan (House of Reps) |
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2.70 Joel Fitzgibbon (House of Reps) |
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2.50 Yvette D’Ath (House of Reps) |
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1.80 Mike Symon (House of Reps) |
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1.50 Daryl Melham (House of Reps) |
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1.10 David Bradbury (House of Reps) |
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1.10 Graham Perrett (House of Reps) |
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1.00 Deb O’Neill (House of Reps) |
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0.90 Michael Danby (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Stephen Conroy (Senate) |
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0.00 Don Farrell (Senate) |
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0.00 David Feeney (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Arbib (Senate) |
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0.00 Jacinta Collins (Senate) |
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0.00 Christopher Evans (Senate) |
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0.00 Kate Lundy (Senate) |
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0.00 Jan McLucas (Senate) |
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0.00 Penny Wong (Senate) |
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0.00 Louise Pratt (Senate) |
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0.00 Lisa Singh (Senate) |
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0.00 Glenn Sterle (Senate) |
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0.00 Matt Thistlethwaite (Senate) |
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0.00 Catryna Bilyk (Senate) |
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0.00 Joe Ludwig (Senate) |
ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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20.60 Anthony Albanese (House of Reps) |
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20.00 Maria Vamvakinou (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Anthony Byrne (House of Reps) |
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12.30 Ed Husic (House of Reps) |
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12.20 Janelle Saffin (House of Reps) |
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12.00 Nick Champion (House of Reps) |
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8.10 Alan Griffin (House of Reps) |
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7.80 Chris Bowen (House of Reps) |
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7.70 Justine Elliot (House of Reps) |
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6.90 Robert McClelland (House of Reps) |
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6.80 Laura Smyth (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Martin Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Kevin Rudd (House of Reps) |
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0.40 Darren Cheeseman (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Ursula Stephens (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Bishop (Senate) |
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0.00 Kim Carr (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Furner (Senate) |
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0.00 Gavin Marshall (Senate) |
I am so bloody relieved.
vic
That is consistent with a DOS attack. A gazillion bots all hitting the site at the same time.
Von Kirsdarke,
Thanks for that.
cheers.
bombers so say all of us. these past years have been such a rollacoaster.
puff also the politial sword like comments as well i go there occassionaly
the abc are so boring
While true, PB goes down when large political events occur, this is because lots and lots log in to see what is happening, lots of people post. This causes a traffic spike and the host network hardware falsely trips a DDoS attack. It is a design fault in Crikey’s sever setup.
My say
The sky channel has been quite good even though PVO was his usual pathetic self.
Rudd presser at 12:30
ruawake
I dont think i can bear to listen to tin tin
pat the lady that does the poem any one rmember the name of her sitel somthing like pommie polly or pmmie pollie
Question time is going to be interesting.
I hope we see fighting/feisty Julia – she’s my favourite. :)
no not watching kev… I wonder where he will sit in parliement…. i wonder if he thought it would end llike this., back seat
no staff no more jets.
I wouodn’t go that far at all, but I must say the free and easy attitude towards sock puppetry is degrading the site. The technical definition of sock puppetry” is that one person is simultaneously assuming 2 or more commenting identities. What’s happening at PB is that one or more commenters are posting under different names, but at different times. This gets around the technical definition of sock-puppetry but, to my mind, not the moral one.
Whatever the case may be, the trolling over the past few days has been abominable, simple, slogan-shouting stuff. Most commenters at PB in the past have shown some wit and tried to argue their cases, with a spattering of sloganeering, true, but not to the extent of the trolls over the past week or so.
I’m not trying to deny that PB is left-leaning, maybe more lying down than just leaning, too. But it seems that trying to cater to “balance” – numberically equal numbers – is a recipe for banality and failure as a moderating philosophy.
This has nothing to do with my recent “stoush” with William, by the way. It was never much more than a storm in a teacup to me, a quibble over words, but others seemed to take it more seriously and threats of leaving PB started breaking out, which gave me no joy at all, as I value PB immensely, or at least I valued the old PB in that way. A private correspondence between William and I that evening sorted everything out most amicably, fairly and unambiguously.
Anyway, this is my last comment on the meta-blogging aspects. Back to Abbott-bashing (my favourite sport).
yes but i see wilkie has said, he will look at what abbbotts rant proposal will be before he comments.
i nearly rang this morning and ask why he cannot back a winner
I’m not surprised that PB is down – given the idiocy over there with TLM, Evan and the patronising, pedantic, pompous twerp Bemused (who specialises in bagging JG who has done way better than Bemused ever did) it is not surprising that the site is compromised - the inmates are in charge of the asylum.
my say
I think it is pollie poems?
Crikey’s other bits and pieces are working fine.
Other Crikey blogs still have comments activated. No so PB?
So WTF is going on ?
My say, i agree with Puuuffyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy. we have to fight multiple fronts. If i leave, i will be conceding the battle ground.
My say
I too will continue to post on both blogs. Agree with Finns. We must no concede the battleground
Gillard is now a real threat to Abbott
Rob Burgess
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Gillard-wins-ballot-73-votes-to-29-report-pd20120227-RV29Q?OpenDocument&src=sph
So there is it: Rudd 31 votes, Gillard 71.
What does it mean? If, as Keating once said, Labor needs a primary vote “with a four in front of it” to win government, Rudd needed a figure with three in front of it to have even close to the credibility to run against Gillard again in the next 17 or so months.
The fact that he scraped in close to the low end of that range should be enough to keep him out of the ears of caucus members at least, though the prospect of Rudd not continuing to make high-profile appearances with ‘the Australian people’ seems like a bit of a stretch.
This is very bad news for Tony Abbott. While the Opposition leader put on a good show during the spill process of repeatedly saying he didn’t particularly care which leader he would have to face off against in 2013, the truth is that a Rudd cabinet would have been easy pickings for Abbott, the master of populist attacks on Labor.
A Rudd front bench would been very weak – not only because some of Labor’s best policy minds would have been banished to the back bench, but because even the ministers remaining in their roles would have served each day in an environment of bitterness, recrimination and most likely utter dysfunction.
The Gillard front bench is a much stronger outcome, particularly now we know that two thirds of caucus have given her their confidence.
As suggested earlier today, this is the time in the long, sorry affair of the Rudd destabilisation and challenge, for the national media to move political theatre to the back-burner and start – please, please – to pick apart both Labor and the Coaliton’s policy platforms and let voters decide which offers Australia the brightest future (How is Rudd still a hero? February 27).
If that sounds wrong, it’s important to remember that the policy analysis of news media outlets such as Business Spectator is not typical of the nightly TV news and the biggest broadcast news, or print and online editions of newspapers. The policy debate needs to move to the front pages and if, as Abbott’s supporters argue, the Coalition has robust policies to answer Labor’s, that’s what the punters will ultimately decide for themselves.
To this point we have not had that – political discourse since September 2010 has often been a ludicrous slanging match that has given the Coalition easy points, and has simply not required the Abbott team to dig deeply into Labor’s policies themselves. By that I don’t mean that the Coalition doesn’t understand Labor’s policies – obviously each shadow minister is across his or her portfolio – but that they are not required to address them in detail in parliament when ‘scrap the tax’ or ‘stop the boats’, followed by a censure motion to shut down question time, seems to do just fine.
So let the contest of ideas, and the communication of those ideas begin. If Abbott really rises to that challenge, Gillard is finished.
But if something like serious political debate emerges in this country in the next 17 months there’s a good chance Abbott has a problem. Labor will try to attack what at present looks like an incoherent mix of policies, with no real underlying political philosophy – unless you accept Rob Oakeshott’s analysis that it is, in fact, “more like the Democratic Labor Party, more like One Nation, than anybody”.
That’s a fairly extreme analysis, but such criticisms risk a poll slide for Abbott and the rumblings of a challenge within his own ranks – albeit one a bit cleaner than the Rudd tilt.
Of course there is no guarantee that Rudd won’t continue to spoil Labor’s prospects with subtle leaks, digs, and photo-ops from the backbench. That would be a bad outcome for the nation. However, if today’s vote has finally removed the Rudd threat, then a real policy contest can begin. And may the best side win.
I still cant get over how much sense Latham made today. He cut through all the bullshit. It is a strange day indeed when Latham makes more sense than anyone.
I posted another article from Bus Spectator here a couple minutes ago and it hasn’t apperaed.
Anyone know what the go is ?
My Say
Patrica’s pome site
http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/
dave
If ru is about. He might know
I use the ‘stfu’ Greasemonkey script on PB (I think Musrum wrote it?), which is very handy for filtering out the troll posters.
You can find it here: http://userscripts.org/scripts/show/63741
Ta Vic.
Will see what happens
Gillard is now a real threat to Abbott
Rob Burgess
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Gillard-wins-ballot-73-votes-to-29-report-pd20120227-RV29Q?OpenDocument&src=sph
Rudd is on Sky presser now.
yes but i have other reasons ,that may have been noticed or noticed i dont intentend to subject my self to that. again
at 63 i chose m y company
Dave
Thanks for posting article. Good read
What the farq is going on at bilbos ?
Its script has gone to the dogs and its been down for 2 hours
Grrrrrrrr
Kevin you are not FM anymore – go away.
i saw a nice piece on her site. thankyou misadventure. so i thought i would put it here
COMMENTS:
Mary, 26/02/12, There was another lady with red hair once in another time and realm, she fought battles , within her court and held back envaders, from other lands, trail blazer of her time, elizabeth thefirst, The prime minister is a lady of courage and generousof spirit and time, so many wonderful policies for the ordina ry folk.does not bow to others does what she thinks is right governs this nation for the good of all its people not just the few, There seems to be jealousy around her, and dislike, is it because she is the first lady pm , who knows only those who wish her harm know why ,they do so. Her face radiats with love, and understanding, i feel she actualy feel geuinly y sorry for those that seek to harm her, she will prevail, god bless our pm julia gillard our very first lady pm, julia gillard the immigrants daughter from wales.
ruawake
I dont have the stomach to listen to him after all the crap he has inflicted on the Labor party
KRudd talking self- congratuating drivel as usual.
It’s still all about Kevin and will always be. What a complete tosser
Have Rudd on mute. Sick of him.
Wonder if the PM will have her press conference before QT….
Wonder if Rudd has any real self awareness whatsoever. He does not get it.
ALP UNITE !!!!
and lets beat the real enemy. The Man-Child Monkey called RAbbott
Oh dear, shades of Richard Attenborough’s Oscars speech here. Rudd thanks EVERYONE in foreign affairs.
Howdy all.
Mick
We shall see if Rudd does the right thing.
o well silver lining for frank. and his blogg things alwasys happen for a reason, Like to day this had to happen. Only julia was brave enough to make it happen a whimpish p,m would never have called a spill., the path was there rudd created for himself but of course he could not see the path. that has lead to his downfall, One minute he was foreign minister the next a back bencher. Julia is so so courageous, and gets things done, she new this had to be settled and settle it she has.
She has come out on top with support that all who supported her must feel very proud and pleased, the rest can please themselves.
Overall, a decent speech by Rudd.
Harold
I did not hear it. Just hope Rudd does the right thing.
btw whats with bilbos sudden need to cull all of pbs regulars in favour of Right Wing Fucks and sock puppets ?
Mick
You would need to ask Bilbo that question
love this bit the link dave posted re the avr
[ Rudd front bench would been very weak – not only because some of Labor's best policy minds would have been banished to the back bench, but because even the ministers remaining in their roles would have served each day in an environment of bitterness, recrimination and most likely utter dysfunction.
The Gillard front bench is a much stronger outcome, particularly now we know that two thirds of caucus have given her their confidence.]
well i was made feel very unwelcome, may be just me but it felt like that
Well its now Wabbott hunting season.
Bring it on.
rudd has made lots of decent speaches, ? but perhaps we can hope this will do a bit of healing for him,,,,,
lets see
ruawake
Not to a moment too soon!!!