Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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24.90 Mark Dreyfus (House of Reps) |
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23.90 Nicola Roxon (House of Reps) |
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22.60 Kate Ellis (House of Reps) |
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22.30 Harry Jenkins (House of Reps) |
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22.20 Brendan O’Connor (House of Reps) |
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22.20 John Murphy (House of Reps) |
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19.70 Laurie Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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17.10 Tanya Plibersek (House of Reps) |
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16.90 Bill Shorten (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Andrew Leigh (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Richard Marles (House of Reps) |
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13.90 Amanda Rishworth (House of Reps) |
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13.50 Simon Crean (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Sharon Bird (House of Reps) |
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12.90 Jenny Macklin (House of Reps) |
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12.70 Greg Combet (House of Reps) |
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12.50 Sharon Grierson (House of Reps) |
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12.10 Stephen Jones (House of Reps) |
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11.70 Catherine King (House of Reps) |
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11.50 Jason Clare (House of Reps) |
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11.00 Mark Butler (House of Reps) |
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10.80 Julia Gillard (House of Reps) |
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9.50 Steve Gibbons (House of Reps) |
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9.20 Gai Brodtmann (House of Reps) |
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9.10 Tony Burke (House of Reps) |
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8.80 Chris Hayes (House of Reps) |
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5.90 Stephen Smith (House of Reps) |
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5.80 Bernie Ripoll (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Steve Georganas (House of Reps) |
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5.40 Craig Emerson (House of Reps) |
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5.30 Rob Mitchell (House of Reps) |
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5.20 Peter Garrett (House of Reps) |
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4.40 Julie Collins (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Shayne Neumann (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Sid Sidebottom (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Warren Snowdon (House of Reps) |
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3.30 Gary Gray (House of Reps) |
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3.20 Wayne Swan (House of Reps) |
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2.70 Joel Fitzgibbon (House of Reps) |
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2.50 Yvette D’Ath (House of Reps) |
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1.80 Mike Symon (House of Reps) |
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1.50 Daryl Melham (House of Reps) |
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1.10 David Bradbury (House of Reps) |
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1.10 Graham Perrett (House of Reps) |
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1.00 Deb O’Neill (House of Reps) |
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0.90 Michael Danby (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Stephen Conroy (Senate) |
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0.00 Don Farrell (Senate) |
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0.00 David Feeney (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Arbib (Senate) |
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0.00 Jacinta Collins (Senate) |
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0.00 Christopher Evans (Senate) |
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0.00 Kate Lundy (Senate) |
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0.00 Jan McLucas (Senate) |
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0.00 Penny Wong (Senate) |
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0.00 Louise Pratt (Senate) |
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0.00 Lisa Singh (Senate) |
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0.00 Glenn Sterle (Senate) |
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0.00 Matt Thistlethwaite (Senate) |
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0.00 Catryna Bilyk (Senate) |
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0.00 Joe Ludwig (Senate) |
ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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20.60 Anthony Albanese (House of Reps) |
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20.00 Maria Vamvakinou (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Anthony Byrne (House of Reps) |
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12.30 Ed Husic (House of Reps) |
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12.20 Janelle Saffin (House of Reps) |
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12.00 Nick Champion (House of Reps) |
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8.10 Alan Griffin (House of Reps) |
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7.80 Chris Bowen (House of Reps) |
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7.70 Justine Elliot (House of Reps) |
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6.90 Robert McClelland (House of Reps) |
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6.80 Laura Smyth (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Martin Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Kevin Rudd (House of Reps) |
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0.40 Darren Cheeseman (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Ursula Stephens (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Bishop (Senate) |
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0.00 Kim Carr (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Furner (Senate) |
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0.00 Gavin Marshall (Senate) |
markjs
Yes I am. Wow. Although Gillard’s numbers are bad
Don’t you love Aunty Jack:
Vic,
We are well passed peak ‘derp’… all forward from here
It would seem that despite the negative effect of Labor infighting, the public may have possibly responded to Labor’s positive policy agenda, as all MPs, including the PM, have been summarising through the fog of how to lead the Labor party.
Then again, this is a newspoll, more than a year out from an election. One good thing: this is not good for Abbott
I predicted at least one fuckwit would read that into it
Abbott truly is keeping Labor in the game. What are the Libs going to do with him?
georgesays:
I predicted at least one fuckwit would read that into it
EditDelete
What do you expect from a fuckwit who stood in a SAFE Liberal seat and blames the anti Whitlam swing for losing :-)
And from one fuckwit to another one:
Darren Laver sums up Newspoll:
But the pollsters didn’t ask that question – so that fuckwits can make all kinds of baseless summations in the aftermath. Understandment?
depends who the hhow the question was ask did not know the story of kevin,,they thohght he would be pm, so i would say only the laborites in the poll where positive for MISS Gilard. buut gee this is not poll bludger really there was a lot of uncertainty about julias future from the ordinary perdon who thought kev wss the best thing since sliced bread ! so , its not known what was in their mi ds.
now how funny i said the bit for julia was bad becucauce they thought kev may be back and did not know how to answer the question, what was the question,, ///// see now u know why i a, here.
:
i do wish people would say miss gillard . nite
FFS The Ruddistas are crediting Rudd with the lift in the polls!
Poss is a Quincelander and a Ruddista – nuff said:
I have given up on Poss.
Victoria, inhale the magic smoke, sink into the cordial flavoured bath, and let the illogical bathe you until you cry like a baby
george
I was expecting the primary vote to go down. It has not. JG numbers are bad as expected.
Newspoll dissected by it’s Boss:
The poor dear is SO conflicted:
No Aunty Jack:
FFS!!!!….
It’s a obvious as the nose on your face that Rudd is contaminating the approval ratings for Julia….
Once he’s consigned to the back-benches and no longer the ‘alternative PM’…and media attention re-focuses on The Hollow Man…JG’s approvals will improve.
The important thing is the improvement in ALP’s PV and the 2PP…
markjs
The other place is descending into the abyss of stupidity
Led by it’s erstwhile host.
Spagnolo is a fuckwit.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/mcgowan-should-pray-for-early-federal-poll/story-fn6mhct1-1226281969541
Interesting from the other place
Phil Coorey dealing out some home truths about Abbott on Sky at the moment.
The other panelists looking quite stunned that anyone might question their lad.
oh an nameless MP Fatima ?
Frank
Fatima must think Bruce Hawker is a Labor MP.
one PB vs another PB :-)
football.
One of the most beneficial things that will come out of this whole affair is the resurgence of Julia Gillard.
Forget about the tired cynicism of the jaded professional students.
Forget about the superior sounding, yet jaded psephwhatevertheyarecalled ologists.
Forget about the political purists who believe that all has a price , but can’t understand value.
Pay them no heed
Julia Gillard will lead Labor and will win the 2013 election. She will win because of one simple, irrevocable truth.
Julia Gillard is stronger ethically, morally, personally and, importantly, mentally than Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnball and any other they put up against her.
The quiet voting public have seen, started to understand and realised the bullshit that has been going on is only hurting the nation. As corny as it sounds I believe that, before the next election, the public at large will see Julia Gillard as the guardian that states “Not on my watch”.
You’ll do me Bloodnut. You’ll do me.
Something from the Archives from the man being promoted by the ultimate Faceless Man.
http://danbymp.com/index.php?eid=366&DMAP=2819&article=688
Ian @3o…
Not sure if it’s allowed here…but what the heck!!…..
+1
did bowe tweet hat ok whos going to post it on his stite, for
no matter how good or otherwise fot us some try ro turn it up side down :::
THis will be tomorrow’s headline – yet won’t affect the Ballot :-)
Where is Newspoll dsapproval for Julia
Senator McClelland’s backpedalling plea for a job from Julia :-)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-26/rudd-supporter-admits-loss-probable/3853696
Astroturfing Bruce Hawker style:
https://www.facebook.com/ruddfactor?sk=wall
morning frank.. the financial review story about abbott presure on indrpendant, ,wtte ind, no interested
Morning My say:
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
@Thefinnigans@latikambourke Good Morning. Today Kevin Rudd will be tossed into the dust bin of history. The#MSMhacks should let him stay thereIn reply to Latika Bourke
If as expected JG gets up today, I wonder what the MSM campaign will be against next. Is there something in the air with Turnbull?
Gee they’re out early on PB
rnm1953
Morning. They are out early at PB. Still carrying on about Rudd being the saviour. The only saviour Rudd has been is for the Libs. He has been on a mission and it is destroying his own party. He deserves to be booted out of the party.
great piece by Kohler
It doesn’t look like Kevin Rudd will win this morning’s ballot, but if he did he could not become prime minister today, if at all.
That’s because Labor’s majority is based on personal deals between Julia Gillard and the independents, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. Kevin Rudd would have to renegotiate them, which would take time (17 days?) if it could be done at all, and the Governor General would be unable to appoint Rudd as prime minister until he had a majority of the lower house.
This is interesting but academic because Gillard will comfortably win the caucus vote. And that’s because her situation, and that of the ALP, is not all that dire; they don’t need to go back to Rudd to win the next election. If it were that clear they did, Rudd would win.
Independent polling analyst Andrew Catsaras presented a stunning analysis of the polls on the ABC’s Insiders program yesterday which put the almost hysterical coverage of the supposedly disastrous position of the ALP in a whole new light.
Catsaras combines the results of the five major pollsters: Neilsen, Newspoll, Essential, Morgan and Galaxy, which produces an average monthly sample of 8,700 respondents and a margin of error of 1 per cent.
He said yesterday that the primary vote of the ALP is 33 per cent, the Coalition 46 per cent and the Greens 11 per cent. That translates to a two-party preferred vote of 54-46 in favour of the Coalition, or 4 per cent swing against the government.
He then said: “I think that something people need to realise is that governments have been in poorer positions than this government much closer to the election and yet they’ve still won. That’s happened three out of the last seven elections.”
The other important point he made is that Julia Gillard still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. This would be news to a media consumer: you would think, reading the newspapers and watching the TV news bulletins, that she was Jim Scullin, about to suffer a swing of 22 per cent, as Scullin did in 1931 to Joe Lyons, or as one newspaper actually suggested, Billy McMahon, the least popular PM of all.
It’s not the most appealing story to tell, but the Gillard government’s position is not all that desperate, at least going into today’s ballot for the leadership.
It will presumably worsen this month following the sudden frenzy of public recriminations over the past week, but from where the polls stand at the moment, the government would only have to recover 3 per cent of the two-party preferred vote to be guaranteed of victory at the next election, at least according to Andrew Catsaras.
But it’s been awfully interesting to watch someone so consumed with frustrated ambition and bitter resentment that they explode before our eyes, like a sort of manic blonde suicide bomber.
At least with most unfair dismissal cases, there’s a chance of a settlement and a nice cheque to go away and shut up. This preposterous escapade – effectively a late unfair dismissal action – by Kevin Rudd, could only ever end in disaster for him, and for the party.
You’ve got to wonder, though, what is going through the mind of Anthony Albanese.
Robert McClelland and Kim Carr you can understand, motivated as they are by petty vengeance over their demotions. But Albanese tearfully supporting Rudd because of the 2010 coup? Please.
Good morning all.
I guess we can look forward to the LOTO rant in QT today. And after Rudd has been wiped in the ballot, I hope never to hear his voice again but that’s probably wishful thinking.
Victoria,
Bruce Hawker should be run out of the country. He’s an even bigger grub than Rudd.
His morning mercury still has albanese in the undeclared list ??T
vic can u post andrew on the other site. we had mr bwe withhis tweeti g , we now have andrew we should invite andrew to occassionly post here
janice
Agree re Hawker. Wonder if he is welcome back to the Bligh Campaign?