Feb 232012
 

Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25

No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.

Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25

ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)

Ordered by Seat Margin

24.90
Mark Dreyfus
(House of Reps)
23.90
Nicola Roxon
(House of Reps)
22.60
Kate Ellis
(House of Reps)
22.30
Harry Jenkins
(House of Reps)
22.20
Brendan O’Connor
(House of Reps)
22.20
John Murphy
(House of Reps)
19.70
Laurie Ferguson
(House of Reps)
17.10
Tanya Plibersek
(House of Reps)
16.90
Bill Shorten
(House of Reps)
14.20
Andrew Leigh
(House of Reps)
14.20
Richard Marles
(House of Reps)
13.90
Amanda Rishworth
(House of Reps)
13.50
Simon Crean
(House of Reps)
13.20
Sharon Bird
(House of Reps)
12.90
Jenny Macklin
(House of Reps)
12.70
Greg Combet
(House of Reps)
12.50
Sharon Grierson
(House of Reps)
12.10
Stephen Jones
(House of Reps)
11.70
Catherine King
(House of Reps)
11.50
Jason Clare
(House of Reps)
11.00
Mark Butler
(House of Reps)
10.80
Julia Gillard
(House of Reps)
9.50
Steve Gibbons
(House of Reps)
9.20
Gai Brodtmann
(House of Reps)
9.10
Tony Burke
(House of Reps)
8.80
Chris Hayes
(House of Reps)
5.90
Stephen Smith
(House of Reps)
5.80
Bernie Ripoll
(House of Reps)
5.70
Steve Georganas
(House of Reps)
5.40
Craig Emerson
(House of Reps)
5.30
Rob Mitchell
(House of Reps)
5.20
Peter Garrett
(House of Reps)
4.40
Julie Collins
(House of Reps)
4.20
Shayne Neumann
(House of Reps)
4.20
Sid Sidebottom
(House of Reps)
3.70
Warren Snowdon
(House of Reps)
3.30
Gary Gray
(House of Reps)
3.20
Wayne Swan
(House of Reps)
2.70
Joel Fitzgibbon
(House of Reps)
2.50
Yvette D’Ath
(House of Reps)
1.80
Mike Symon
(House of Reps)
1.50
Daryl Melham
(House of Reps)
1.10
David Bradbury
(House of Reps)
1.10
Graham Perrett
(House of Reps)
1.00
Deb O’Neill
(House of Reps)
0.90
Michael Danby
(House of Reps)
0.00
Stephen Conroy
(Senate)
0.00
Don Farrell
(Senate)
0.00
David Feeney
(Senate)
0.00
Mark Arbib
(Senate)
0.00
Jacinta Collins
(Senate)
0.00
Christopher Evans
(Senate)
0.00
Kate Lundy
(Senate)
0.00
Jan McLucas
(Senate)
0.00
Penny Wong
(Senate)
0.00
Louise Pratt
(Senate)
0.00
Lisa Singh
(Senate)
0.00
Glenn Sterle
(Senate)
0.00
Matt Thistlethwaite
(Senate)
0.00
Catryna Bilyk
(Senate)
0.00
Joe Ludwig
(Senate)

 

ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)

Ordered by Seat Margin

20.60
Anthony Albanese
(House of Reps)
20.00
Maria Vamvakinou
(House of Reps)
13.20
Anthony Byrne
(House of Reps)
12.30
Ed Husic
(House of Reps)
12.20
Janelle Saffin
(House of Reps)
12.00
Nick Champion
(House of Reps)
8.10
Alan Griffin
(House of Reps)
7.80
Chris Bowen
(House of Reps)
7.70
Justine Elliot
(House of Reps)
6.90
Robert McClelland
(House of Reps)
6.80
Laura Smyth
(House of Reps)
5.70
Martin Ferguson
(House of Reps)
3.70
Kevin Rudd
(House of Reps)
0.40
Darren Cheeseman
(House of Reps)
0.00
Ursula Stephens
(Senate)
0.00
Mark Bishop
(Senate)
0.00
Kim Carr
(Senate)
0.00
Mark Furner
(Senate)
0.00
Gavin Marshall
(Senate)

  1,273 Responses to “A Quick & Dirty List of Declared Supporters”

  1. From Vex – it’s even worse for Rudd :-)

    vexnews@vexnews

    Rudd’s support in the 20s we keep hearing, and even that’s fading. If true, this has been a remarkable exercise in folly. #auspol #respill

     

  2. DTT with more of her navel fluff.

    daretotread

    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

    It is over for Rudd and Gillard and probably the ALP bar the tears.

    Rudd will lose Monday, quite badly

    Gillard will continue to poll poorly

    The libs will select a sane LOTO

    Rudd will resign

    Election

    Libs will be elected with a 60% TPV. Labor will have a PV of 28%

    Labor will lose about 25 seats including 4 to the Greens.

    But hey – all worth it because Rudd was mean to me and I will dummy spit.

     

  3. I think it was Toolman who said that Rudd thinks he’s the “People’s Princess” because he’s popular with voters – he said that most people find that the closer you get to Rudd the less you like him.  It made me think of his dubbing the Lodge boganville after he was dumped, so it is obvious he thinks he’s Jesus Christ looking down on his peasant folk.

  4. janice

    I so desperately want Rudd to lose the vote 90 to10. I want him to be comprehensively smashed. He disgusts me

  5. someone making sense

    Rod Hagen
    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
    Gillard will walk it in. Yes, Rudd will snipe from the back bench, but I very much doubt that any of his handful of “heavyweight” supporters will really have the stomach for a second challenge before the next election.

    THe huge problem for Rudd is that most of caucus don’t believe Labor would even make it to the next scheduled election with him “at the helm”, let alone win it in the schemmozzle that they’d be in by then. In such circs, his current popularity with coalition voters just doesn’t cut it.

  6. Oh Diddums from the Ruddistas – where were they whenthe Evan Parson’s Project attacks Tim ?

     the spectator

    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

    Dee – rudd’s family really are a joke – talk about media tarts!! it must be hereditary just saw his wife on tv raving on about how they were ‘ordinary’ people who looked after their mothers and grandmothers!!! good grief – is she serious!

    Disgraceful attack on Rudds family simply because he wife asks the voters to speak to their local MPs’.  Is there no level the ALP mafia will stoop to degrade someone. Attack Rudd sure but leave his family alone.

     

  7. I wonder what PM Gillard’s new front bench will look like?

    Rudd, Carr, dopey twit who used to be A-G gone.

    Bowen to keep immigration – he deserves it.

    Garrett big winner, to get all of education?

  8. add another to Julia’s List:

    Latika Bourke @latikambourke

    Labor MP Deb O’Neill saying she’s supporting Julia Gillard. #respill

    Retweeted by Le Grace

     

  9. Oh the hypocrisy of the Ruddistas have been revealed:

    Danny Lewis

    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    just saw his wife on tv raving on about how they were ‘ordinary’ people who looked after their mothers and grandmothers!!! good grief – is she serious!

    I tweeted earlier that it came across to me as a shameless dog-whistle to those who disapprove of Gillard being single and “deliberately barren”.  The “she’s not one of us, you know” argument.

    Absolutely disgusting.

    And the RUDD camp is complaining about rough treatment?

  10. Interesting – Is Abbott reading Peta’s lines at pressers ?

    Mark McKeown@mark_mckeown

    Just off the phone with Tony Abbott who refused to talk about Labor’s leadership fiasco, and *hung up on me* when I asked him a third time!

     

  11. Anyone remember the There\’s  person, with the dodgy keyboard that inserted a \ before an apostrophe?

    From memory it was a rabid  Abbott fan, now pretending to be Green. Sheesh.

  12. Natalie Cooper@nellenc

     

    People think Jess Rudd and Therese are nice but they’re part of a sophisticated PR strategy to undermine Gillard 2/2

    Retweeted by Greg Jericho

     

    Gosh – what a coincidence kevin, hawker, therese and now jess rudd are all telling people to call their MPs 1/2

    Retweeted by Greg Jericho
  13. Maybe one good thing to come out of this is the demise of Bruce Hawker.

  14. ruawakesays:

    Maybe one good thing to come out of this is the demise of Bruce Hawker.

    EditDelete

     

    With Bruce running the Qld State Election Campaign for Bligh perhaps his role with Rudd be considered a conflict of interest – or do they both want to destroy Labor as a Brand ?

  15. Frank

    Hawker has resigned his Qld election gig, to concentrate on his millionaire mates.

  16. ruawake says:

    Frank

    Hawker has resigned his Qld election gig, to concentrate on his millionaire mates.

    I thought he was “taking leave” ?

  17. Twobob on cue:

    MTBW

    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

    the spectator

    Disgraceful attack on Rudds family simply because he wife asks the voters to speak to their local MPs’. Is there no level the ALP mafia will stoop to degrade someone. Attack Rudd sure but leave his family alone.

    Totally agree!

     

  18. I thought he was “taking leave” ?

    He will not be back.

  19. zoomster

    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

    AFR:

    http://afr.com/p/home/factbox_who_belongs_to_the_rudd_utFbWZV3578fxVw9MTXaqI

    Gillard 59, Rudd 19, Unknown 25

  20. Go finny :

    TheFinnigans天地有道人无道@Thefinnigans

    So what we have here is the Husband, the Wife and the Daughter (last 2 not elected) are attacking PM Gillard in a coordinated manner.

     

     

  21. So no Quincelanders, apart from Kev are voting for him – VERY telling consdering the BS re Kev is good for Qld Seats etc.

  22. Who has updated the list at top of this post??

    Several members declared for JG have been counted twice…..

  23. I wonder what Anna Bligh and Beattie think of Hawker working so closely with their great friend Rudd to destroy the Federal Labor Govt.

  24. Mother Therese being a player, not a Supporter.

  25. markjs,

    Which ones?    Finny only has flippers so is handicapped and though I have all fingers and toes, I’m damned if I can see duplicates.

  26. The reality is that Kevin Rudd has been making deeply personal attacks behind the scenes to journalists for well over a year now and it’s somewhat hypocritical for him to then come out and make those statements when people are prepared to put their name, to put their face to their comments and to say this is the truth about Kevin Rudd.

    Kate Ellis, Employment Participation and Childcare Minister
     
    The Defence rests.
  27. ruawake

    Was this statement made publicly or on her website

  28. vic publicly

    Given her boyfriend is a News Ltd Journo I reckon she has a bit if gossip up her sleeve.

  29. ruawake

    Precisely why I wondered if it was a public statement. Surely Rudd would have known about her relationship with Penbo. Is Rudd in touch with reality?

  30. What Bullshit:

    Greentard

    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 8:46 pm | Permalink

    Greentard, why do you have a backslash fetish?

    My keyboard is broken. I\’m going to get a new one the next time I run out of milk.

     

     

  31. Grrentards keyboard inserts \  even cut and pasting.

    Was is truthy or gee whiz or some other rancid lib who had the same problem on PB?

  32. janice…all good now …Finny’s obviously borrowed a calculator ;)

  33. ruawakesays:

    Grrentards keyboard inserts \  even cut and pasting.

    Was is truthy or gee whiz or some other rancid lib who had the same problem on PB?

    Gee Whizz and Truthie were one and the sdame – a fact Manchild doesn’t wish to acknowledge.

  34. Telstra accepts separation conditions in National Broadband Network deal

    Just for a bit of reality, :)

  35. Did anyone see the presser by the PM today?

  36. rua,

    Telstra must have suffered “separation anxiety” today :lol:

  37. FINNIGANS – do you really think that all of these ministers who are lining up behind Julia Gillard will all vote for her in a secret ballot? Be a bit surprised

    Why are people wanking about a secret ballot?  It is a show and tell ballot. Each member of caucus has to show his/her ballot to another. Stops everyone claiming to have voted for the winner like the Libs .

  38. Janice

    Lol!

  39. I watched her presser today, Victoria.  The best I’ve ever seen her.

  40. ruawake@17

    I noticed that post too, but i cant be bothered setting them straight

  41. Janice

    Good to hear. Had a prior engagement and missed it.

  42. Gillard’s Presser :

  43. Mike Kelly MP@MikeKellyMP

    I also believe it would discourteous to my colleagues to converse with them through the media, social or otherwise.

    On the leadership question I feel I should not talk openly on this until caucus. Maybe it’s my Army background but I believe in discipline

  44. Mike Kelly refusing to declare either way….says he wants to speak with caucus colleagues on Monday….via Twitter

  45. Good work on the blog Frank, finns et al.

  46. Frank Calabrese

    Thanks for linking JG presser. Fantastic!

  47. I would be very disappoimted if Mike Kelly backed the rat

  48. Finns – an addition:

    Bushfire Bill

    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    That AFR list has John Murphy in the “Undecided” column. He has sent a message to his local party branch that he is a Gillard supporter.

     

     

     

     

  49. Proof from the Evan Parson’s Project ?

    Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    It’s very disturbing to hear that MPs are being threatened with loss of preselection or ministerial posts if they don’t vote for Gillard. Those are the bully boy tactics of the Gillard mafia, fully endorsed of course by her fan club here.

     

  50. Sparrow’s Farting:

    Gary Sparrow

    Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    Rudd will either come very close or win on Monday.

    The polls will sway many. Plus we all know Gillard can’t campaign for nuts just look at 2010.

    The point is Gillard is finished. Rudd may come back or a 3rd candidate later.

    But Tone most likely will be PM in the end.