Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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24.90 Mark Dreyfus (House of Reps) |
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23.90 Nicola Roxon (House of Reps) |
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22.60 Kate Ellis (House of Reps) |
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22.30 Harry Jenkins (House of Reps) |
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22.20 Brendan O’Connor (House of Reps) |
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22.20 John Murphy (House of Reps) |
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19.70 Laurie Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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17.10 Tanya Plibersek (House of Reps) |
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16.90 Bill Shorten (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Andrew Leigh (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Richard Marles (House of Reps) |
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13.90 Amanda Rishworth (House of Reps) |
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13.50 Simon Crean (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Sharon Bird (House of Reps) |
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12.90 Jenny Macklin (House of Reps) |
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12.70 Greg Combet (House of Reps) |
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12.50 Sharon Grierson (House of Reps) |
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12.10 Stephen Jones (House of Reps) |
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11.70 Catherine King (House of Reps) |
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11.50 Jason Clare (House of Reps) |
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11.00 Mark Butler (House of Reps) |
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10.80 Julia Gillard (House of Reps) |
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9.50 Steve Gibbons (House of Reps) |
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9.20 Gai Brodtmann (House of Reps) |
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9.10 Tony Burke (House of Reps) |
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8.80 Chris Hayes (House of Reps) |
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5.90 Stephen Smith (House of Reps) |
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5.80 Bernie Ripoll (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Steve Georganas (House of Reps) |
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5.40 Craig Emerson (House of Reps) |
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5.30 Rob Mitchell (House of Reps) |
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5.20 Peter Garrett (House of Reps) |
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4.40 Julie Collins (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Shayne Neumann (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Sid Sidebottom (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Warren Snowdon (House of Reps) |
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3.30 Gary Gray (House of Reps) |
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3.20 Wayne Swan (House of Reps) |
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2.70 Joel Fitzgibbon (House of Reps) |
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2.50 Yvette D’Ath (House of Reps) |
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1.80 Mike Symon (House of Reps) |
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1.50 Daryl Melham (House of Reps) |
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1.10 David Bradbury (House of Reps) |
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1.10 Graham Perrett (House of Reps) |
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1.00 Deb O’Neill (House of Reps) |
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0.90 Michael Danby (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Stephen Conroy (Senate) |
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0.00 Don Farrell (Senate) |
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0.00 David Feeney (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Arbib (Senate) |
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0.00 Jacinta Collins (Senate) |
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0.00 Christopher Evans (Senate) |
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0.00 Kate Lundy (Senate) |
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0.00 Jan McLucas (Senate) |
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0.00 Penny Wong (Senate) |
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0.00 Louise Pratt (Senate) |
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0.00 Lisa Singh (Senate) |
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0.00 Glenn Sterle (Senate) |
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0.00 Matt Thistlethwaite (Senate) |
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0.00 Catryna Bilyk (Senate) |
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0.00 Joe Ludwig (Senate) |
ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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20.60 Anthony Albanese (House of Reps) |
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20.00 Maria Vamvakinou (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Anthony Byrne (House of Reps) |
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12.30 Ed Husic (House of Reps) |
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12.20 Janelle Saffin (House of Reps) |
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12.00 Nick Champion (House of Reps) |
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8.10 Alan Griffin (House of Reps) |
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7.80 Chris Bowen (House of Reps) |
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7.70 Justine Elliot (House of Reps) |
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6.90 Robert McClelland (House of Reps) |
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6.80 Laura Smyth (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Martin Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Kevin Rudd (House of Reps) |
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0.40 Darren Cheeseman (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Ursula Stephens (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Bishop (Senate) |
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0.00 Kim Carr (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Furner (Senate) |
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0.00 Gavin Marshall (Senate) |
ru, you think Newman will win Ashgrove? The story today about ‘plan C’ should he not is ridiculous.
Rua
Do you think that is because they are abstaining,also are these 22 from the same faction.
I tep what is plan C for Ashgrove ?
Mike Kelly is one of the 22, he has said he’s not going to say how he will vote. He tweeted that he had made his decision and advised both parties and left it at that. I’ve always thought he was in the Gillard camp, but I could be mistaken.
From Lizzie:
The Ashgrove plan C is – Newman loses, the LNP force a resignation and Newman wins a seat in a by election.
Newman denies it – so it must be true.
latest numbers frim the SMH:
Rua Batphone
Oh FFS:
I’m calling it: JG: 68….KR: 34 (Michelle Rowlands not voting)
2/1 in favour of JG = Landslide win…eat your cold hard heart out Mr Rabbott!!!!!!
Frank @ 8….
That’s all piss and wind signifying SFA!!!
Robert McClelland on ABC24
Oh please Julia let me stay in my wonderful job, I loves it.
ruawake
There will obviously be a reshuffle of cabinet due to Rudd resigning as FM. Do you see Jason Clare being ready for Defence and Smith back to FA?
Rudd said today:
“If Julia Gillard is returned on Monday then she will have my unequivocal support between now and the next election because we have interests way beyond individuals here,” he told Channel Nine.”
Yet the article headline is:
“Rudd backers warn of future challenge against Gillard”
Anyone else getting thoroughly sick of the dis-connect between headlines and the actual content of articles???
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-26/rudd-backers-warn-of-future-challenge-against-gillard/3853646
I am sure Stephen Smith would love to be FM. But he would also like to finish the Defence restructure he is dragging the ADF through. But I bet it is his call.
victoria @13…
Yes….and yes
If you were a member of caucus and had carefully refused to commit over the last week why would you vote for the loser now? I still think 20 will be a good result for Rudd.
ruawake
Rudd does not even derserve 20 votes. His conduct has been truly disgraceful
e pm ask if mr rudd would go to the bank’bench if he lost and recind all thought of the pm ship wtte, th pm said she would do that, so see the above , ,
Markjs there’s no necessary disconnect between Rudd’s comments and that headline given Rudds words are not worth a lot.
Rudd should be made Minister for Housing, outside of Cabinet. He can then get his teeth into something useful. Junior Kev.
abbbott cannot say one word he won by one vote ::
Yet he always mangaes to cartch up with my posts :-)
stephen smith has 2 small xchikdren he may not wantfm,. i dot want to see any of them on the front bench, let them lose their cushy jobs and pay and allowance, even albanese as far as i concerned unless theere is somthing behind the reason.
let them find out what its like to be outsiders, i know people will say it will cauce trouble, ‘better the devils you know
will the rudd clan return to the other place, was that the only reason for being there
Geez…just watched McLelland on 7.30….
I’ve never seen anyone back-pedal as quickly as this guy….
2 days ago…wtte: ” Julia Gillard can’t win next election for us”
Today…”we will have to unite and ensure Julia Gillard wins next election for us”…and….. “I have a lot to offer as a member of her cabinet”
He, at least, knows the game is well and truly up!!!
frank dont frett, this blogg is more like a face book page great information pictures and occassional posts. do lots of finding of headlines make ita place that people come tofind the latest, it may never be as busy as pb, i noyice the polital sword is a gret blog.’do some commenting , be nice if u ask bb to allow u toput his pieces here. . george does more art work, ru is around,
so be content give this blogg a diffdrent feeli read some pb, just then and i thought i cannot beleive i actually got in the middl of all that whatever.. ilost a friend on pb because i complained about things.. so life goes on you have special talents may be the good lord and your guardian angel think this is your place
mark thats what i meant , you dont reward your children foy playing silly buggers do u
bet he pulls the pin in the morning
Rudd still has the wimp it option. Imagine if he did not stand?
Good evening all.
I still think Rudd is mentally ill. I just cannot believe he could act his way in and out of the Jekyll & Hyde character he’s been displaying. Up until his interview with Oakes today he’s been wavering like a sapling in the wind going from nice guy to mean and vengeful in the blink of an eye. This morning he was in nice guy/conciliatory mode whilst blatantly lying through his teeth as Oakes handled him with kid gloves as though afraid he might set off the volcano within. The thought crosses my mind as to whether Rudd is on medication that might cause mood swings and irrational behaviour. Anyway, that is all bye the bye.
The thing I do not understand is how his caucus supporters can dismiss and forgive his deliberate undermining of the government and its leader. Whether they think he was wronged in 2010 when he was deposed is one thing, but to actively support his campaign to be returned as PM after whiteanting, sabotage and bad mouthing the PM, not only internally but out in the business community and general public as well, is beyond my understanding. The mind boggles about what he may have said as he travelled the world as FM.
My Say
i was going to say the same thing. You do not reward kids for bad behaviour, you punish them. Rdd’s behaviour has been appalling, I just doin’t understand how anyone could want to support him after what he’s done. How could you support a man who deliberatelyy tried to sabotage an election campaign out of spite and ambition?
I think he’s on the verge of a huge breakdown, his behaviour over the last week has been very odd. I’d love to be a fly on the wall at the Rudd home. I’d love to hear what Therese says when she drops the sweet little wifey act she puts on for the cameras and reverts to normal.
A candid insight from Mike Kelly via Twitter a few moments ago:
“@ZuveleLeschen @Thefinnigans @SpaceKidette will admit came v close to pulling the pin. Albo, Abbott & the importance of 2013 pulled me back.”
janice/leone
I caught a glimpse of the expression on Therese’s face at his presser the other afternoon. She had a look of bewilderment and fear. The interesting aspect is tnat my mum phoned me to tell me the same thing.
There is something not quite right with Rudd.
markjs
I have to say Kelly’s tweet does not engender confidence
hypomanic temperaments r us in Ruddville.
There you are then Frank. William Bowe doesn’t trust you to not to give the PB twits a well-deserved blast.
Does this sound familiar
http://www.psychologytoday.com/articles/200907/field-guide-the-hypomanic-hothead-state
Poor Frau Kelly:
Hmm so AB is a student of WB.
Hmmmm
Therese Rein has the money in the Rudd family. She would not have become a multi-millionaire with an international business empire if she wasn’t tough as old boots and willing to trample over anyone to get what she wanted. So I find her current ditsy, mumsy, devoted wife act very hard to swallow. I suppose she’s paying for Kevin’s presidential-style campaign, she’s probably wondering why she bothered wasting her money. I think she should just keep out of it. She said the other day to the poress pack ‘I know the truth’. I wonder if she still thinks that way after all the revelations about Kev’s lies.
victoria….what did Frank say to you yesterday????? :)
ruawake@39
Does describe Rudd to a tee
I said this morning front page of Hun. Heading
Kevin mania. I said it should have said kevin manic.
Was not far off the mark.
Ghost who votes just tweeted:
“#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+2) L/NP 53 (-2) #auspol”
Are you reading this victoria??
#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+2) L/NP 53 (-2) #auspol
26/02/12 8:30 PM
#Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (+3) L/NP 45 (-1) #auspol
26/02/12 8:30 PM
#Newspoll Gillard: Approval 26 (-6) #auspol
26/02/12 8:31 PM
#Newspoll Abbott: Approval 31 (-5) Disapproval 57 (+5) #auspol
26/02/12 8:32 PM
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 36 (-1) Abbott 38 (-2) #auspol
26/02/12 8:33 PM
markjs
Are you reminding me not to be a party pooper? From recollection, Frank told me to toughen up!!
Ghost who votes just tweeted:
“#Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (+2) L/NP 53 (-2) #auspol”
“RT “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (+3) L/NP 45 (-1) #auspol”
“#Newspoll Abbott: Approval 31 (-5) Disapproval 57 (+5) #auspol”
victoria…yes.
All’s good with ALP Govt…….Abbott will be shitting himself