Feb 232012
 

Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25

No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.

Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25

ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)

Ordered by Seat Margin

24.90
Mark Dreyfus
(House of Reps)
23.90
Nicola Roxon
(House of Reps)
22.60
Kate Ellis
(House of Reps)
22.30
Harry Jenkins
(House of Reps)
22.20
Brendan O’Connor
(House of Reps)
22.20
John Murphy
(House of Reps)
19.70
Laurie Ferguson
(House of Reps)
17.10
Tanya Plibersek
(House of Reps)
16.90
Bill Shorten
(House of Reps)
14.20
Andrew Leigh
(House of Reps)
14.20
Richard Marles
(House of Reps)
13.90
Amanda Rishworth
(House of Reps)
13.50
Simon Crean
(House of Reps)
13.20
Sharon Bird
(House of Reps)
12.90
Jenny Macklin
(House of Reps)
12.70
Greg Combet
(House of Reps)
12.50
Sharon Grierson
(House of Reps)
12.10
Stephen Jones
(House of Reps)
11.70
Catherine King
(House of Reps)
11.50
Jason Clare
(House of Reps)
11.00
Mark Butler
(House of Reps)
10.80
Julia Gillard
(House of Reps)
9.50
Steve Gibbons
(House of Reps)
9.20
Gai Brodtmann
(House of Reps)
9.10
Tony Burke
(House of Reps)
8.80
Chris Hayes
(House of Reps)
5.90
Stephen Smith
(House of Reps)
5.80
Bernie Ripoll
(House of Reps)
5.70
Steve Georganas
(House of Reps)
5.40
Craig Emerson
(House of Reps)
5.30
Rob Mitchell
(House of Reps)
5.20
Peter Garrett
(House of Reps)
4.40
Julie Collins
(House of Reps)
4.20
Shayne Neumann
(House of Reps)
4.20
Sid Sidebottom
(House of Reps)
3.70
Warren Snowdon
(House of Reps)
3.30
Gary Gray
(House of Reps)
3.20
Wayne Swan
(House of Reps)
2.70
Joel Fitzgibbon
(House of Reps)
2.50
Yvette D’Ath
(House of Reps)
1.80
Mike Symon
(House of Reps)
1.50
Daryl Melham
(House of Reps)
1.10
David Bradbury
(House of Reps)
1.10
Graham Perrett
(House of Reps)
1.00
Deb O’Neill
(House of Reps)
0.90
Michael Danby
(House of Reps)
0.00
Stephen Conroy
(Senate)
0.00
Don Farrell
(Senate)
0.00
David Feeney
(Senate)
0.00
Mark Arbib
(Senate)
0.00
Jacinta Collins
(Senate)
0.00
Christopher Evans
(Senate)
0.00
Kate Lundy
(Senate)
0.00
Jan McLucas
(Senate)
0.00
Penny Wong
(Senate)
0.00
Louise Pratt
(Senate)
0.00
Lisa Singh
(Senate)
0.00
Glenn Sterle
(Senate)
0.00
Matt Thistlethwaite
(Senate)
0.00
Catryna Bilyk
(Senate)
0.00
Joe Ludwig
(Senate)

 

ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)

Ordered by Seat Margin

20.60
Anthony Albanese
(House of Reps)
20.00
Maria Vamvakinou
(House of Reps)
13.20
Anthony Byrne
(House of Reps)
12.30
Ed Husic
(House of Reps)
12.20
Janelle Saffin
(House of Reps)
12.00
Nick Champion
(House of Reps)
8.10
Alan Griffin
(House of Reps)
7.80
Chris Bowen
(House of Reps)
7.70
Justine Elliot
(House of Reps)
6.90
Robert McClelland
(House of Reps)
6.80
Laura Smyth
(House of Reps)
5.70
Martin Ferguson
(House of Reps)
3.70
Kevin Rudd
(House of Reps)
0.40
Darren Cheeseman
(House of Reps)
0.00
Ursula Stephens
(Senate)
0.00
Mark Bishop
(Senate)
0.00
Kim Carr
(Senate)
0.00
Mark Furner
(Senate)
0.00
Gavin Marshall
(Senate)

  1,273 Responses to “A Quick & Dirty List of Declared Supporters”

  1. My say, yes it becomes a bit of an addiction. In the old days I used to log onto pollbludger first thing in the morning, heart beating in anticipation of a fix. Nowadays it all really doesn’t bother me. That might change after a couple of years of Abbott PM :p

  2. itep   please no no  abbott

  3. Yes but to be fair My Say when PB was founded and before Crickey it actually was a site about polling and news. William very strictly stopped anyone giving an opinion or acting provocatively – it was very pleasant but changed about the time Crickey bought it.

  4. yes  polling and news   like  bk  does  every morning  great stuff

  5. I mentioned yesterday that it seemed from Rudd’s presser that he’d gone to school on the Abbott approach in content (or lack thereof) and style, the Credlin-Loughane game plan. The fact that he is also “campaigning” on the issue of trust seems to ripped directly from the Howard playbook.

    Rudd and Hawker are quite the little magpies.

  6. Rua

    Rudd is gone, he has to contemplate back bencherville with his one member of staff and no Dept.

    All the while looking straight up the gunbarrel of disendorsement. There should be a poster on his wall with a bloody great gun labelled “Disendorsement” aimed right at him. It should be his desktop and screensaver. The ALP should be uncompromising.

    Personally I feel sorry for Rudd who is tremendously talented but unstable, certainly right now. His promenade through the Mall today is inexplicable, illogical and I hope he takes some time off for himself and his family after Monday. IMO he needs help.

  7. ru  i thought u mentilned  it was a ballott that was seen,”  took a peek at  pb  . a member syas  its a secret ballott

    inay have  missunderstood,  ??

  8. hi dan  still battling 36 deg, here just happened to look at  pb  o my god   to much for me  i’hop  this site gets bigger i was going to post   over there   an add  bur better ask permission first

  9. My say
    Traditionally the ballot was a ‘show and tell’. Within a faction each member showed the person behind them their vote. As the factions are now completely splintered it is unlikely that this type of vote still occurs

  10. I do not believe it :

    So Manchild is endorsing a Ban Evader to suit his meme.

     

    What a frigging Joke

    1406
    Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    William – If you have seen the posts above – do you regard *Shows On* posting as *Greentard* as sock puppet ?

    Not exactly. Sock puppetry is the adoption of multiple identities to give an impression of wider support for your position than actually exists. ShowsOn is doing something different – evading a banning. I’m not of a mind to slam the door on the new identity because I’d decided to lift the ban anyway, and he’s been keeping the flaming within acceptable limits.

     

  11. Victoria and Forever Janice – just to let you know I have changed the title substantially and the content a bit of my pome about which you made comments.  I had taken the liberty of copying them to the original pome.  I trust the new format is all right for you.   If not, let me know and I will delete!   I’m pretty sure my prediction is the right one.

    http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/2012/02/25/will-ruddys-face-be-red/

    Found everyone’s comments here and at The Political Sword and Cafe Whispers today very encouraging, even since Albo’s decision.   Go Julia!

  12. my say

    Wow 36 degrees – sounds like a scorcher for Tassie.

    By all means, feel free to comment over at the Derp.

    Same goes for everyone on AFV, all of your comments, constructive criticism, additions are welcome.

    The Derp has a slightly different set up than AFV for posting comments. You just create a user name (in your case My Say), add your email address*, and a website if you like. The website can be you Twitter profile, or any other site you like. It’s not cumpulsory though.

    The email address and user name are cumpulsory, and of course your email address will not be visible to any one who visits the site. It’s just for admin pruposes in case I need to contact you for technical reasons. And of course you email address will never be disclosed to any one else for any reason without your permisssion.

  13. Ahh Mad Maxine:

    Miranda Murphy@murphymiranda

    Yikes RT “@Gay_Alcorn: Maxine McKew says what she really thinks of Julia Gillard, and it’s not pretty. In The Sunday Age.”

     

  14. Joe Hockey Criticises Peter Slipper for stating the bleeding obvious:

  15. Considering I’m still banned over at the other place I will post my reply re DTT hear:

    daretotread

    Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Effect on Qld   Anna was relying on an active Kevin to help her campaign. That is now trashed. I frankly can barely be bothered getting out to letterbox and call now.

    ALP stall numbers were thinner today. more Greens out than ALP on my drive through. Could not even find the stall I was supposed to sit at.   I suspect that Wayne Swan would not be an electoral asset just now. So Anna is on her own. Gillard will not be welcome in Qld.   Phones were running 7/1 for Kevin   Great labor mates she has.

    The ALP in Qld aere Stuffed while they have that Astro Turfinig Faceless Man named Bruce Hawker running the campaign.

     

     

  16. Ahh Thee Libs are all class – NOT.

  17. Interesting:

    TheAge Breaking News@theagebreaking

    The gender agenda: Julia Gillard’s legitimacy has always been questioned. A lot of it revolves around her gender… http://bit.ly/z4WVLm

  18. What a nasty piece of Work from the Hearld Scum – if I recall correctly Tim isn’t a member of Parliament- thouigh I;m sure he is supporting Julia behind the scenes.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/kevin-plays-the-family-card-while-julia-keeps-tim-in-the-background/story-e6frfhqf-1226281560866

     

     

  19. Can’t find my last post – did something happen to it?

  20. gwenethsays:

    Can’t find my last post – did something happen to it?

    EditDelete

    Nothing in the spam bin under your name – So I can’t answer why it disappeared.

  21. FRom SK – Interesting to say the least.

    Space Kidette

    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 12:51 am | Permalink

    Intrepid Geek ‏ @geeksrulz

    Rudd allegedly called PM a childless, atheist, ex-communist as Labor leader http://is.gd/tE6VCL

    6m Séan Séan ‏ @esseeeayeenn

    @geeksrulz He did, I was there.

    6m Intrepid Geek Intrepid Geek ‏ @geeksrulz

    @esseeeayeenn you are a witness?

    5m Séan Séan ‏ @esseeeayeenn

    @geeksrulz Yes.

    4m Intrepid Geek Intrepid Geek ‏ @geeksrulz

    @esseeeayeenn Wow. He simply denies it and that’s that it seems. Imagine JG pulling a stunt like that.

    Séan Séan ‏ @esseeeayeenn

    @geeksrulz I have consistently made statements consistent with the facts while withholding details to protect the party.

     

     

  22. Okay – must have hit the wrong button.

     

  23.  

    thank you patricia, for gy your poem

  24. PB has gone feral.  Has anyone notice a change in some of the long time posters like bemused?

  25. why some so creul  they must harbour thoughts that will in the long run make  them unwell,   its sad that some oeople even woman cannot get over weactually have a beautiful lady  at our helm  hher soul does magnify her face,  i actually think she feel sorry for those  who dis like her    their loss of course  god bless julia  our very first  lady  pm

  26. gwenth its a ver y negative place  tbe vibes are dreadful  it was maki g  me  depressed,  uu can actually feel the negative force coing through the screen  it needs  blessi g, .  i feel it meant for change  not sure what  let see   something has changed,

  27. things happen  for a reason  frank and the boys  are the reason for this blogg it will  flurish

  28. frank  are u really going back there,  its so negative

  29. my say

    I think Frank has bigger and better things to do now that AFV is gaining in popularity than waste his time time on the PB cesspool.

  30. gweneth, Brumby is staunch, if Ms Gillard is good enough for John Brumby then she’s good enough for me

  31. Thanks for that gweneth!     Just to repeat  – if you need reminding, John Brumby thinks Julia Gillard has what it takes!

    Running the country is a hard and selfless exercise, which requires important personal qualities: determination, decisiveness, self-belief, loyalty, decency and a sense of purpose. It requires strong leadership – and with it an ability and willingness to work with cabinet, with caucus, with the Parliament and with the broader community to achieve lasting change.

    Julia Gillard has these qualities in spades. She is a team player whose single motivation is a better and stronger Australia. Her record of achievement is testament to this.

    Australia is best served by Julia Gillard remaining as Prime Minister, continuing to lead her government and the nation.

  32. Why does “Junior” remind me of a certain challenger ? :-)

  33. Ch 10 re today:

    Borg’s comments are telling:

  34. ad astra at The Political Sword has laid out a Gillard v Rudd scorecard. The conclusion:

    As a strong supporter of Kevin Rudd from the outset, I for one found it difficult to accept the emerging stories of his dysfunctional behaviour, especially after he started so well. I did not want to believe them. But believe them I now must. Was he like that all along? I suspect so; it just took us two years to find that out.

    From what I hope you will see as an objective analysis, it is my unavoidable conclusion that Julia Gillard is the only one properly equipped to govern this nation. Kevin Rudd is not. I hope caucus agrees.

    http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2012/02/25/The-Gillard-Rudd-comparative-scorecard-.aspx

  35. i hope some one has posted  the  last  few links  over there,

  36. So much for Queensland MP’s being behind Rudd:

    QUEENSLAND Senator Jan McLucas is still smarting from the way Kevin Rudd  sacked her as parliamentary secretary for Health and Ageing in mid-2009.

    The then-prime minister didn’t have the courtesy, she says, to deliver the  bad news himself to his fellow Queenslander. Instead he had his chief of staff  Alistair Jordan call Ms McLucas. Senator McLucas won’t be voting for Mr Rudd in  the leadership ballot tomorrow.

    There is a vast disconnect between Mr Rudd’s public persona as Queensland’s  favourite son and the opprobrium with which most of his caucus colleagues from  his home state regard him. Although Labor insiders privately concede they would  have a far better chance of boosting the party’s vote in Queensland under Mr  Rudd than Julia Gillard, few can bear the thought of working for him again.

    ”Kevin has treated them all like shit unnecessarily too many times,” one  Queensland Labor powerbroker said. Of the 13 Labor caucus members from  Queensland, at most two intend to support Mr Rudd tomorrow. Senator Claire Moore  is rusted on to Mr Rudd and Senator Mark Furner is counted in the Rudd camp,  although there have been suggestions he could shift to Ms Gillard

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/favourite-son-falls-out-of-favour-in-queensland-20120225-1tv59.html#ixzz1nPiEIwgq

     

     

  37. Oh Well.

    Radguy

    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 4:18 am | Permalink

    Glad he’s still around WB.

    Will you let Frank back in WB? I said earlier he is not a good sport but is good sport.

    A few others have requested his presence.

    • 2053
      Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 4:36 am | Permalink

      And others still have requested his absence.

     

  38. frank why dont  u let finns  say u have no intention of  returnong  ss your dite is getting so much traffic  your to busy

  39. frank  u will always be our living legened  u dont need them

  40. Saw this linked on PB. How I wish some of our politicians would stick it to their interviewers as well as the President of Ireland does to this… wanker.

    http://www.democraticunderground.com/101713520#post2

    Really… listen to it. It will make your day.

  41. just posted what i could at   pb  the hillyskelton and  jan mclucas  wish i had time to stay on the big computer

    but still notice the large gap between sentances, unless you go to the very end and i ran out of space, u press the space bar   you still end up somtimes wit h a two line gap.

     

  42. hi bb the atmopsphere is far to negative for me,  i am staying here,  the site seems to have different vibes to long ago.

     you where the first  person i read on the site about 3 years ago,  Frannks doing a great  job very cool calm and collected with the help of a wonderful tech support team george and ru.  this site is technically is so so good

  43. Anyone know who’s on Insiders this am?

    As another thought, wonder if Rudd’s interview with Oakes wiil somehow have Oakes saying leaks didn’t come from Rudd?

  44. will oakes mention the leaks?.   will be interesting

  45. Of the 23 known unknowns I think you need to add Doogie and Faulkner to the Ruddista. Someone said Doogie would abstain but there is no evidence in the media for this and he was one of her earliest supporters. With Doogie and Albo so goes Faulkner. The Soft Left has gone to the Ruddistas; I don’t know why.