Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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24.90 Mark Dreyfus (House of Reps) |
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23.90 Nicola Roxon (House of Reps) |
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22.60 Kate Ellis (House of Reps) |
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22.30 Harry Jenkins (House of Reps) |
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22.20 Brendan O’Connor (House of Reps) |
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22.20 John Murphy (House of Reps) |
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19.70 Laurie Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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17.10 Tanya Plibersek (House of Reps) |
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16.90 Bill Shorten (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Andrew Leigh (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Richard Marles (House of Reps) |
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13.90 Amanda Rishworth (House of Reps) |
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13.50 Simon Crean (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Sharon Bird (House of Reps) |
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12.90 Jenny Macklin (House of Reps) |
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12.70 Greg Combet (House of Reps) |
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12.50 Sharon Grierson (House of Reps) |
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12.10 Stephen Jones (House of Reps) |
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11.70 Catherine King (House of Reps) |
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11.50 Jason Clare (House of Reps) |
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11.00 Mark Butler (House of Reps) |
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10.80 Julia Gillard (House of Reps) |
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9.50 Steve Gibbons (House of Reps) |
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9.20 Gai Brodtmann (House of Reps) |
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9.10 Tony Burke (House of Reps) |
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8.80 Chris Hayes (House of Reps) |
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5.90 Stephen Smith (House of Reps) |
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5.80 Bernie Ripoll (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Steve Georganas (House of Reps) |
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5.40 Craig Emerson (House of Reps) |
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5.30 Rob Mitchell (House of Reps) |
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5.20 Peter Garrett (House of Reps) |
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4.40 Julie Collins (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Shayne Neumann (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Sid Sidebottom (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Warren Snowdon (House of Reps) |
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3.30 Gary Gray (House of Reps) |
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3.20 Wayne Swan (House of Reps) |
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2.70 Joel Fitzgibbon (House of Reps) |
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2.50 Yvette D’Ath (House of Reps) |
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1.80 Mike Symon (House of Reps) |
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1.50 Daryl Melham (House of Reps) |
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1.10 David Bradbury (House of Reps) |
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1.10 Graham Perrett (House of Reps) |
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1.00 Deb O’Neill (House of Reps) |
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0.90 Michael Danby (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Stephen Conroy (Senate) |
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0.00 Don Farrell (Senate) |
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0.00 David Feeney (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Arbib (Senate) |
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0.00 Jacinta Collins (Senate) |
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0.00 Christopher Evans (Senate) |
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0.00 Kate Lundy (Senate) |
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0.00 Jan McLucas (Senate) |
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0.00 Penny Wong (Senate) |
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0.00 Louise Pratt (Senate) |
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0.00 Lisa Singh (Senate) |
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0.00 Glenn Sterle (Senate) |
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0.00 Matt Thistlethwaite (Senate) |
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0.00 Catryna Bilyk (Senate) |
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0.00 Joe Ludwig (Senate) |
ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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20.60 Anthony Albanese (House of Reps) |
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20.00 Maria Vamvakinou (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Anthony Byrne (House of Reps) |
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12.30 Ed Husic (House of Reps) |
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12.20 Janelle Saffin (House of Reps) |
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12.00 Nick Champion (House of Reps) |
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8.10 Alan Griffin (House of Reps) |
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7.80 Chris Bowen (House of Reps) |
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7.70 Justine Elliot (House of Reps) |
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6.90 Robert McClelland (House of Reps) |
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6.80 Laura Smyth (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Martin Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Kevin Rudd (House of Reps) |
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0.40 Darren Cheeseman (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Ursula Stephens (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Bishop (Senate) |
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0.00 Kim Carr (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Furner (Senate) |
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0.00 Gavin Marshall (Senate) |
i thought i would try some of the bits and pie es above but i lose the screen if i do
(inserts tongue in cheek)
Aha!!! First Bilbo and now Ru trying to get a gig with Newscorpse.
(removes tongue from cheek).
PatriciaWA,
Bilbo got a bee in his bonnet that he wanted more rightwingers commenting – said we laborites were driving them away. He began pointedly picking on a few of the sanest, most insightful bloggers until they left which sort of started a mass exodus. Thank heavens we had Frank’s site to come to or we’d have all been out in the wilderness
i think he likes the sohisticated types ,
geroge if u are around did i see nick sherry at o e stage in rudds mob
j6p
Of course it would suicide if they changed leaders again, and that goes for putting Rudd back in the job. However, a lot of journalists and opinionistas have been putting that scenario forward and that is why Windsor said it’d be time to let the people decide by having another election. And, no I do not believe Labor are that stupid so it won’t happen. They removed Rudd because he had paralysed the government and lost all support except for a handful of mates who either forgave his abuse or didn’t cop it.
Now people are trying to suggest Gillard should consider offering Rudd the FA portfolio again. Haven’t they heard of the saying fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me?
My Say, I don’t think so
What!!!
Rudd is gone, he has to contemplate back bencherville with his one member of staff and no Dept.
ltep,
Well, Hawker and Rudd said the PM should withdraw from the ballot because the polls show she is not popular enough to be PM. Sometimes I wonder whether their brains are atrophied from little use. Rudd thinks that he’s more intelligent than everyone else and fails to realise that there is a very fine line between sanity and insanity.
DavidW2035 @DavidW2035 Reply Retweeted Favorite · Open
At least Labor has a choice between 2 talented politicians – The Libs have to chose between a moron, a fat wally and a rich tosser
i would the rich one on both sides so people still’dont get it re )) all the stories leeks ect , where are peoples brain
ltep,
Well, Hawker and Rudd said the PM should withdraw from the ballot because the polls show she is not popular enough to be PM. Sometimes I wonder whether their brains are atrophied from little use. Rudd thinks that he’s more intelligent than everyone else and fails to realise that there is a very fine line between sanity and insanity.]
but the polls where the reason k rudd was sacked as was reported at the time, but now according to here the polls don,t mean shi,t just good governence will win and the majority of voters views don’t mean fuck all. as long as the caucus is right
fmd. people you cant have it both ways . you either wait and comment breathlessly when ever a poll comes out with just the slightest improvement for the govt.
or they are shit sheets that are fully biased
ITEP who is suggesting tFM again
Does anyone have a list of the not-declareds yet? And if so, is there some kind of mud-map as to how they’re likely to go?
I guess I should also ask, why are they taking so long? Anything sinister to be read from that?
my worry is adams and sherry , did i hear sherry was retieing, also heard the member for bruce was, adams would be be retieing age i think so if people are retiring , well
Joe
You sure you posted this on the correct blog?
I didn’t mean to imply it was anyone within the political sphere
. Just a couple of commenters on another, less distinguished, website.
gosh i must of dreamed it,, i th thought i read it some where.
ITEP well if the usual rudd commentators are saying this they must think his chances are zero
who is fmd
rua
but the polls where the reason k rudd was sacked as was reported at the time, but now according to here the polls don,t mean shi,t just good governence will win and the majority of voters views don’t mean fuck all. as long as the caucus is right
fmd. people you cant have it both ways . you either wait and comment breathlessly when ever a poll comes out with just the slightest improvement for the govt.
or they are shit sheets that are fully biased
my full post. you told me you like diff. opinions as that is what keeps democracy alive or was I mistaken and can’t have ny own view here?
Asking nicely
One rule. read it. Want an argument fuck off elsewhere. No sin bin no wankery no bullshit. Understand? .
” I love fighting Tories” Albo & jGil used that today. Luv it
i wou sugest the question being ask was who so u prefer.
if ask and i was liberal i would say rusd, as when i have been ask and not for years, i would say turnbull
a poll came out recently i think it ws ess, that pointed out, labor people wanted julia., , so a poll that is not sep tells us nithing
j6p
No, the polls had nothing whatever to do with Rudd getting the boot. but the media decided it was the polls and of course the general public took up that mantra. I, for one had no doubt whatever that the real reason was big and it was serious and it was not done on the whim of “faceless men”. I criticised the Government for not coming out and telling the whole truth to the public and, in hindsight (a wonderful thing hindsight) many in caucus wished they had not tried to spare Rudd more humiliation than he had to endure by his removal. If anyone cares to stop and think through the events of the first half of 2010, it is quite evident that the government had stalled and all was not right inside it. Labor voters I know were shaking their heads and calling Rudd every name in the book and then the journos kept reporting incidents where Rudd abused someone or other and complaints from public servants were filtering out into the community. Then, when all but a handful of caucus stood up to be counted (which didn’t happen because Rudd didn’t stand) to rid the govt of Rudd because he was incapable of making decisions or even consulting/talking with his colleagues, it doesn’t take much to conclude that a government consisting of amazing talent woud risk their seats and government because the polls weren’t still 60/40. His staff were unhappy and so were the staff in other departments so in short, there was general chaos.
android doesnt seem to like posting sory, any ideas ay one, its ‘wilan operated with this site its in delay i cannot see what i type
:One rule. read it. Want an argument fuck off elsewhere. No sin bin no wankery no bullshit. Understand? .
Yep I am asking a genuine ? when the polls were good for labor they are ok. but when bad they are shit sheets?
how the fuck is that spoiling for a fight . give me a answer to the ?
or don’t u like the ?
Bushfire,
I am too lazy to go find out which MPs are on the undeclared list. Some of them may have declared their choice to journalists and it probably depends on which journo as to whether they get listed or not. You know, what the public don’t know, won’t hurt them. I’m pretty sure if a big wad of them were for Rudd we’d know about it by now.
That is why I asked were you posting on the correct blog. Can you backup your assertion? I don’t think anyone on this site thinks polling means too much at the moment. Straw men do not make a great argument. Plus my moderation methods after doing it for 7 years on a site with 5000 daily posters may be different to others.
j6p,
Please don’t take offence. IMO in here we don’t hang all our socks on the polls and at least for me, they can be interesting or not but this far out from an election are really the media’s toys with which they drum up stories. Anxious pollies in marginal seats probably keep an eye on the polls and would start twitching badly if they’re bad close to an election.
do you want me to go back to pre 07 blogs and even post 07 blogs when people were cheering every newspoll when labor were in the lead?
Fucking hell rua, I haven’t questioned your moderation, I have posted a theory that may or may not be shut down.
do you wish me to leave?
j6p,
I can see where you are coming from and you are right that the pseph blogs are full of people who love to analyse polls and/or use the result to bait their fellow bloggers.
This blog was not here in 2007. Get the idea? This is not Pollbludger in exile. You can do whatever you wish. Except start strawman arguments based on nothing.
j6p
…If you’re referring the the opinion polls that have been conducted during a concerted sabotage campaign against JG directed by Bruce Hawker on behalf of OneKRudd and others…then surely you can see they don’t stack up against the polls that Labor used in 2010 to demonstrate Rudd’s loss of popularity while NO SABOTAGE CAMPAIGN WAS BEING CONDUCTED AGAINST RUDD…
But don’t accept my word….read this article by Stepehen Koukoulas…he explains it much better than me:
http://stephenkoukoulas.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/reading-poll-data-badly.html
polls are all pb , i could never see the facination with them
how was the queation ask who answered the question, i was ask a few weeks ago was there a 36 year old in the house , yes thats me, no questions ask
j6p
…..so, in effect the current polls are, indeed, ……..”SHIT SHEETS”
I don’t like the term “Sheets”
My energy levels have just about hit rock bottom so I think I’ll have to hit the sack. Take care, J6P. Good night all.
J6P
Condolences for your loss. It’s so hard when they’re young.
35 i have booked
marked stevens piece, has any one sent’it’to mr bowe lease post the whole thing on pb i would be game but c, cannot a nd”paste’on this contraption
yes joe my daughter has had to attend a couple of awful funerals of past students drugs and suicides in the past months
brillant students,,good families u just as why
and polls i just dont bother with them yet , understand where your coming fom on pb they where msacred
Because you are stating facts without any substance. Nobody is pointing to polls when it suits them and saying they are shit at other times on this blog, except maybe you. – Is this really difficult to comprehend? I am not in the slightest way angry.
some people where school children n in 2007 ow that think about this now to some rudd was like a knght , i suppose they dont get it but on refelection a drovers dog could of won in a 007
Quite a powerful denunciation of Rudd’s behaviour as PM:
“The highly personal attacks on Rudd by cabinet ministers are revealing. Rudd treated his colleagues in Parliament with contempt and ran a dysfunctional government. There is a widespread belief in Canberra that his years in office constituted the first pathologically narcissistic prime ministership in Australia. As leader, he consistently abandoned hard policy debate for the easy consolation of strong polls. He confused permanent campaigning for good government. He regarded popularity not as a means to an end but as an end in itself.“
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/rudds-quest-for-revenge-may-be-labors-undoing-20120224-1ttto.html#ixzz1nNpzd4EU
Joe, I’m not sure you’ve been paying attention (mainly on the other site) to what a lot of the people who have found a home here have been saying ever since the policy work began after the 2010 election.
Myself included, we have been going on about the importance of implementing policy so that a) we are actually achieving something for the country and subsequently b) we (Labor) have a story to tell to the public – that is “here is what we have done, this is why we have done it, and here are some short term benefits (yes, here is what you are seeing right now) and long term ones that we believe the country will enjoy in the next 5-10+ years”
The problem with concentrating on poll numbers, and believe me, this is EXACTLY what the coalition would like Labor to do, is that you are fighting over something that may or may not pay dividends when it counts, that is, weeks and days before an election. If polls can go up over time, they can also go down, and if you have nothing else to tell a story with, asking the public to vote you in purely on the fact that once upon a time you were “popular” is not enough.
So no, I don’t really focus on the polls, and certainly not this far out from an election. And certainly not until Labor have sorted their internal house, have bedded down major policies and have started to see direct benefits to the country and the electorate.
Sustaining high poll numbers purely on style and slogans is one very risky strategy. And one that can suddenly evaporate overnight.
pb had me that way with polls i was to scared to get out of bed in the morning . its an obbsession there
mark 47 was that today , surley undecides, will read this and understand
sorry to post so much today its 40 degree heat i am useless , so just sat on the verandah ,its still 30 horrible