Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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24.90 Mark Dreyfus (House of Reps) |
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23.90 Nicola Roxon (House of Reps) |
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22.60 Kate Ellis (House of Reps) |
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22.30 Harry Jenkins (House of Reps) |
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22.20 Brendan O’Connor (House of Reps) |
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22.20 John Murphy (House of Reps) |
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19.70 Laurie Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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17.10 Tanya Plibersek (House of Reps) |
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16.90 Bill Shorten (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Andrew Leigh (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Richard Marles (House of Reps) |
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13.90 Amanda Rishworth (House of Reps) |
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13.50 Simon Crean (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Sharon Bird (House of Reps) |
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12.90 Jenny Macklin (House of Reps) |
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12.70 Greg Combet (House of Reps) |
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12.50 Sharon Grierson (House of Reps) |
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12.10 Stephen Jones (House of Reps) |
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11.70 Catherine King (House of Reps) |
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11.50 Jason Clare (House of Reps) |
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11.00 Mark Butler (House of Reps) |
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10.80 Julia Gillard (House of Reps) |
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9.50 Steve Gibbons (House of Reps) |
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9.20 Gai Brodtmann (House of Reps) |
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9.10 Tony Burke (House of Reps) |
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8.80 Chris Hayes (House of Reps) |
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5.90 Stephen Smith (House of Reps) |
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5.80 Bernie Ripoll (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Steve Georganas (House of Reps) |
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5.40 Craig Emerson (House of Reps) |
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5.30 Rob Mitchell (House of Reps) |
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5.20 Peter Garrett (House of Reps) |
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4.40 Julie Collins (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Shayne Neumann (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Sid Sidebottom (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Warren Snowdon (House of Reps) |
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3.30 Gary Gray (House of Reps) |
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3.20 Wayne Swan (House of Reps) |
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2.70 Joel Fitzgibbon (House of Reps) |
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2.50 Yvette D’Ath (House of Reps) |
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1.80 Mike Symon (House of Reps) |
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1.50 Daryl Melham (House of Reps) |
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1.10 David Bradbury (House of Reps) |
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1.10 Graham Perrett (House of Reps) |
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1.00 Deb O’Neill (House of Reps) |
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0.90 Michael Danby (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Stephen Conroy (Senate) |
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0.00 Don Farrell (Senate) |
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0.00 David Feeney (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Arbib (Senate) |
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0.00 Jacinta Collins (Senate) |
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0.00 Christopher Evans (Senate) |
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0.00 Kate Lundy (Senate) |
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0.00 Jan McLucas (Senate) |
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0.00 Penny Wong (Senate) |
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0.00 Louise Pratt (Senate) |
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0.00 Lisa Singh (Senate) |
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0.00 Glenn Sterle (Senate) |
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0.00 Matt Thistlethwaite (Senate) |
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0.00 Catryna Bilyk (Senate) |
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0.00 Joe Ludwig (Senate) |
ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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20.60 Anthony Albanese (House of Reps) |
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20.00 Maria Vamvakinou (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Anthony Byrne (House of Reps) |
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12.30 Ed Husic (House of Reps) |
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12.20 Janelle Saffin (House of Reps) |
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12.00 Nick Champion (House of Reps) |
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8.10 Alan Griffin (House of Reps) |
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7.80 Chris Bowen (House of Reps) |
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7.70 Justine Elliot (House of Reps) |
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6.90 Robert McClelland (House of Reps) |
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6.80 Laura Smyth (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Martin Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Kevin Rudd (House of Reps) |
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0.40 Darren Cheeseman (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Ursula Stephens (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Bishop (Senate) |
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0.00 Kim Carr (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Furner (Senate) |
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0.00 Gavin Marshall (Senate) |
Very sorry to hear, j6p. My condolences.
BREAKING
Rudd to join Katter’s Australian Party. Bid to become Premier of Qld announced.
(just makin’shit up)
I suppose the Gillard camp know what Rudd is up to as would the journos but will they report it to the wider community?
rua,
You are naughty to make shit up – you’ll never beat Rudd at that game.
post 44 they really think tey are americans in a presedential race to the white house,
Ru – how do I load an avatar ?
Anyhow catch you guys later. Out for the night.
Off on a bitchy tangent, over the last week PB became just another player in the MSM. The clicks(ratings) were good but at the expense of credibility. I still lurk but return here. This is now a safe haven from all of the loonies out there. I hope some other posters come over to this site. I wouldn’t expect people to use this site exclusively–I won’t be: but it would be nice to see some others so that I don’t have to spend 2/3 of my time scrolling on PB
thats where we need a twitter here re rudd and face book
Feel like I am intruding but just wanted to say its good to see some many familiar names on this site, lurked over ‘there’ for quite a while but the platform problems & commentary has made visiting difficult.
I try to do my bit to spread the Bisons as much as possible and have got my daughter on to them as well (Gen Y) I hope they help the PM this weekend.
I put Rudd in the same camp as Tony Abbott , it is all about the win, not what they can do for our wonderful country.
Julia Gillard makes me feel that she is there the people of Australia.
The figures shown above for the PM give me great hope.
Fingers crossed she is still PM on Monday night
If Rudd goes to the backbench, will that reduce his access [and subsequent leaking] of sensitive cabinet information? If his steady supply of info dries up, will the press turn on him? Also, where does this leave Hawker after Monday?
Anyone think the pollsters have jumped the gun and mucked up Rudd’s script? I reckon his plan was to build support in the polls over the weekend (hence the bizarre Facebook Ads) and that all the polls would be sparkly fresh and full of Kevvie luv on Monday morning, just in time to make the nervous nellies support him.
His campaign looks like it has zero flexibility. Typical Hawker.
Hello everybody. Is there any feeling how the 23 undeclared votes are likely to break? Are they fence-sitters waiting to see how the wind is blowing come Monday morning?
thumper welcome , i think this site will be be bigger and better tan amy others may taka year,
[If Rudd goes to the backbench, will that reduce his access [and subsequent leaking] of sensitive cabinet information?]
Any leak or report by a journalist based on an unnamed source in the Labor Party will be attributed to Rudd from Monday on.
i dont know much about hawker, but all this puts him very high profile, does he run a media company
rua,
I reckon Rudd’s script was mucked up at the time he chose to resign from a foreign country without even first having the courtesy to inform the PM of this country. I have a sneaking suspicion he was in panic mode at the time and has been playing catch up with his campaign ever since.
Why does Rudd need a campaign director at all? Was it really necessary for Hawker to leave Anna Bligh stranded in the first week of her election campaign just to fly to Rudd’s side? All this blather from Rudd about ‘my good friend Anna Bligh’ and then he does the dirty on her by syealing her campaign director. Anna doesn’t need friends like that. She should be beginning her own campaign to take over Rudd’s seat if she loses government.
the thing that i keep asking is the ind say they willmwalk that ruddnis notnwhat theynwantm, so that means election in 6 weeksmabboott wins, so why would any labor person chuckthemselves out of office no one answers my question or have i missed something
yes leonie my oh said exactly that said rudd next time should be disendorsed anna takes te sest,
ji scpcat u found’us
My Say
Bruce Hawker is a strategist for the Labor Party. He is a very wealthy man, he’s made millions from being a lobbyist and campaign manager. This will tell you a bit about him -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Hawker
He’s also a very good mate of Rudd’s.
its 40 deg here and the air conditioning is battling so am i
My Say,
Heh Heh. I found my password…
funny it eas my puishment , for trying to change my user name or my nick name or my screen nme
‘,l
tje time zone thing, i only just realised how late itis,
My say,
It is all speculation. Nobody has any idea what would occur should Rudd win and in any case, nobody believes he will win this ballot. Julia and her supporters in caucus need a big, big win on Monday which will send a clear message to Rudd that the majority of caucus do not want him back as PM. He is deranged and bitter enough not to accept the decision of caucus and has deep enough pockets to go on buying those such as Hawker to help him get his revenge. The small numbers of MPs who’ve come out in support of Rudd are deluded and stupid enough to think he can win the election because he won it in 2007 and they see him as the “peoples’ princess” because he once held a big popular vote. IMO only Bowen and Albo are supporting Rudd for reasons they hold dear to their own principles whilst the rest of them are simply lily-livered selfish people looking after their own interests to hang on to their seats.
ru iam still not seeing amy one say about the ind. walking re rud and causingnan election in6 weekstime , i am sure mr windsomeant it, i dont get’it. , so is rudd so out of touch he thinks the ind, love him ?? and all would be the same, have not the rudd voters got any brains at all
thats what i dont get, windsor and oakshott have spoken they are all deluded in the rudd camp
leone,
After this episode, I don’t think Labor will touch Hawker with a barge pole and he damned well knows it. I also think Anna Bligh will re-assess the ‘friendship’ she thought she had with him after him leaving her high and dry at the start of her election campaign.
so what would 23 end up like if the worst happened i like reasurance whete maths are concernd, as it0 who are they
My say,
Don’t be too hard on Windsor and Oakshott – they are definitely not in the Rudd camp but as responsible Indies with electorates to answer to, they will “talk” to Rudd should he win but that doesn’t mean they will be able to come to any agreement with him – same goes if the Govt falls over and they have to “talk” to Abbott.
Hawker was touted as a great bloke by many (including some here) when he helped julia garner the support of the indies after the last election.
whatever happens he will still be a go to man for labor.
Scarpat,
The 23 are those who have not declared and probably won’t declare their position. Therefore these votes could go any whichway but loose. On those, we will just have to wait and see but I’m optimistic that Rudd will get less than 50% of those which would put his votes at less than 30 or at most 31 or 32.
j6p,
Don’t agree Hawker will ever be seen as Labor Party friendly after this – he backed the wrong horse and has been complicit in Rudd’s campaign to wreck the government, it’s PM and the party. He’ll be unlikely to even get the time of day after Monday and neither he should.
Anyone notice the Nielsen poll today, the numbers not the Rudd stuff.
Abbott should be crapping himself. In the midst of all this turmoil he has the Lib Primary almost the same as the last election. 2013 difficult, no it will be easy. Never waste a good crisis.
To lighten things up a bit:
foreverjanice ’
He has been behind the scenes of many a great labor triumph and will probably be around for a few nore regardless of who wins on monday.
j6p,
No way Jose. He’ll be looking back on those great labor triumph’s and rue the day he ever threw in his lot with a deranged, bitter, revenge seeking egoist.
no iam not hard on them at all they said there agreement was with julia. and thats how itshould be, they have said very clesrly last wek , , iagree with their stance seems rudds traitors are not listeni ng, i realise it cannot be done but each and evetone of them shou NOT be preselecyed, i heard the member for bruce is retiring, and looking at the photos i bet a few more are too
there is o e tas, tht worries me he is a fare age as well
Joe6Pack,
My sympathies.
My say,
Windsor and Oakeshotte are honourable men and they mean what they say. However, in the unlikely event Rudd got installed as PM it would not be in their interests or Labor’s interests if they simply handed over Govt to Abbott – ANY LABOR LED GOVT is better than Abbott.
i thought mr windsor said ’ he would let the people dec
Is Kevin going on Today with Toad Face a great idea? Tomorrow morning pollie shows will be fun.
Congratulations on the site, Frank. Lovely to have clearly set out comments to read and to a have Reply box with such simple variations possible. That’s quite apart from having to deal with all the crap comments which crowded out the PB thread I went there to follow and the continual breakdowns in service. And what happened to William as its moderator? As well, Crikey really disappointed on general service to its paid up contributors. I had several run-ins with them on that. Final insult as a paying customer was to have my reading on the PB page regularly interrupted by their ads inviting me to become a subscriber! Let’s hope the Globe does better as well as different.
My say,
Only if after talking to the new PM they felt the govt would not be a stable one. As I said before it is all speculation in the unlikely event Rudd wins the ballot or if caucus would be stupid enough to change leaders again after this is sorted.
rua,
When is Rudd on with the canetoad?
vic
Depending on what model was chosen for a Republic, I think the Australian people would be more likely to vote for an Independent President than one who was aligned to any political party.
Of course that doesn’t mean that an independent Rudd would be the people’s choice.
Tony Windsor on the other hand …
My say,
Only if after talking to the new PM they felt the govt would not be a stable one. As I said before it is all speculation in the unlikely event Rudd wins the ballot or if caucus would be stupid enough to change leaders again after this is sorted.]
That’s a new idea. surely if Rudd wins they couldn’t change again could they.
It would be suicide
Bruce Hawker is a strategist for the Labor Party.
For how much longer ….?