Feb 232012
 

Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25

No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.

Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25

ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)

Ordered by Seat Margin

24.90
Mark Dreyfus
(House of Reps)
23.90
Nicola Roxon
(House of Reps)
22.60
Kate Ellis
(House of Reps)
22.30
Harry Jenkins
(House of Reps)
22.20
Brendan O’Connor
(House of Reps)
22.20
John Murphy
(House of Reps)
19.70
Laurie Ferguson
(House of Reps)
17.10
Tanya Plibersek
(House of Reps)
16.90
Bill Shorten
(House of Reps)
14.20
Andrew Leigh
(House of Reps)
14.20
Richard Marles
(House of Reps)
13.90
Amanda Rishworth
(House of Reps)
13.50
Simon Crean
(House of Reps)
13.20
Sharon Bird
(House of Reps)
12.90
Jenny Macklin
(House of Reps)
12.70
Greg Combet
(House of Reps)
12.50
Sharon Grierson
(House of Reps)
12.10
Stephen Jones
(House of Reps)
11.70
Catherine King
(House of Reps)
11.50
Jason Clare
(House of Reps)
11.00
Mark Butler
(House of Reps)
10.80
Julia Gillard
(House of Reps)
9.50
Steve Gibbons
(House of Reps)
9.20
Gai Brodtmann
(House of Reps)
9.10
Tony Burke
(House of Reps)
8.80
Chris Hayes
(House of Reps)
5.90
Stephen Smith
(House of Reps)
5.80
Bernie Ripoll
(House of Reps)
5.70
Steve Georganas
(House of Reps)
5.40
Craig Emerson
(House of Reps)
5.30
Rob Mitchell
(House of Reps)
5.20
Peter Garrett
(House of Reps)
4.40
Julie Collins
(House of Reps)
4.20
Shayne Neumann
(House of Reps)
4.20
Sid Sidebottom
(House of Reps)
3.70
Warren Snowdon
(House of Reps)
3.30
Gary Gray
(House of Reps)
3.20
Wayne Swan
(House of Reps)
2.70
Joel Fitzgibbon
(House of Reps)
2.50
Yvette D’Ath
(House of Reps)
1.80
Mike Symon
(House of Reps)
1.50
Daryl Melham
(House of Reps)
1.10
David Bradbury
(House of Reps)
1.10
Graham Perrett
(House of Reps)
1.00
Deb O’Neill
(House of Reps)
0.90
Michael Danby
(House of Reps)
0.00
Stephen Conroy
(Senate)
0.00
Don Farrell
(Senate)
0.00
David Feeney
(Senate)
0.00
Mark Arbib
(Senate)
0.00
Jacinta Collins
(Senate)
0.00
Christopher Evans
(Senate)
0.00
Kate Lundy
(Senate)
0.00
Jan McLucas
(Senate)
0.00
Penny Wong
(Senate)
0.00
Louise Pratt
(Senate)
0.00
Lisa Singh
(Senate)
0.00
Glenn Sterle
(Senate)
0.00
Matt Thistlethwaite
(Senate)
0.00
Catryna Bilyk
(Senate)
0.00
Joe Ludwig
(Senate)

 

ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)

Ordered by Seat Margin

20.60
Anthony Albanese
(House of Reps)
20.00
Maria Vamvakinou
(House of Reps)
13.20
Anthony Byrne
(House of Reps)
12.30
Ed Husic
(House of Reps)
12.20
Janelle Saffin
(House of Reps)
12.00
Nick Champion
(House of Reps)
8.10
Alan Griffin
(House of Reps)
7.80
Chris Bowen
(House of Reps)
7.70
Justine Elliot
(House of Reps)
6.90
Robert McClelland
(House of Reps)
6.80
Laura Smyth
(House of Reps)
5.70
Martin Ferguson
(House of Reps)
3.70
Kevin Rudd
(House of Reps)
0.40
Darren Cheeseman
(House of Reps)
0.00
Ursula Stephens
(Senate)
0.00
Mark Bishop
(Senate)
0.00
Kim Carr
(Senate)
0.00
Mark Furner
(Senate)
0.00
Gavin Marshall
(Senate)

  1,273 Responses to “A Quick & Dirty List of Declared Supporters”

  1. GEORGE MEGALOGENIS:

    Labor people complain incessantly that Tony Abbott is trying to slide into office without having his policies tested. But the pot is roaring at the kettle. Rudd sailed into office without facing hard questions of policy detail and implementation, not just from the media but from his own side as well. To listen to his colleagues complain now about the dysfunction of his first term is to be reminded that they didn’t do their due diligence before they elected him to replace Beazley mark II…..

    ….The irony is, the most effective government in the nation today is neither popular nor commands a majority in its own right. Julia Gillard has achieved more in the past 1 1/2 years than any government since Howard’s first term between 1996 and 1998.

  2. mick the numbers  see a few back i presume , they are correct if the  hun ae  are saying it.

    but of course there wou ld be winsdsor and and  oakshott will walk new e,ection, –  abbott they dont people get it, ,’as’far  amconcerned  any one votin g  for  rudd ared worse thann  biie highes,albo knows how ifeel

  3. Thanks for posting GG’s comments…and thanks to you too Doyley….I agree with both of you and your comments pretty well reflect my thoughts.

    I’d ask people who are feeling a bit jittery/surprised after Albo’s decision to take a look at the caucus members who have declared for Julia. I’ve come to ‘know’ most of them by watching/listening to them over the months/years (the only ones I’ve actually met are Rishworth and Conroy at an NBN community forum)….and I would be gobsmacked if any of them changed their vote on Monday because of Albo’s decision.

    I suspect that many would have already factored in his decision (ie: it could have gone either way, and they know he has respect for both Rudd and Julia)

    …also, I think Albo would have waited to be sure that Julia had a good majority before declaring his hand and the fact that she will win comfortably has allowed him to finally give some support to Rudd. Just my musings :)

  4. So this is where all the sane/nice people went.

    i just have to say I’m a bit disappointed in Albo too, but he has his reasons and he certainly handled this morning with class.

     

  5. So this is where all the sane/nice people went.

    I’m not :)

  6. leone,

    Nice to see you here.  Don’t go away will you?

  7. J6P…..so sorry for your loss buddy…

  8. One thing I’m thinking is that a third Rudd Resurgence (a refusal to accept the ballot) may not be met with warmth from the punters. Even they would have to realize that he’s getting the shot now that he never had before, but that this should be it.

    Not saying all of them, but a decent percentage of them.

  9. George,

    You needn’t go fishing for compliments :lol:  But let me say I find you both sane and nice.

  10. This is from OPT at the other place

    I was told about the reasons for Rudd’s removal directly after it happened, by several party insiders.

    I was later able to talk to one of the prime movers privately, who told me the same thng.

    What I’m hearing now is exactly what I heard then

    All those PBers who were on this blog on “coup night” 2010 will recall running commentary by Psephos (hope sp’s right) & that his reports were very similar to what’s being reported now. In fact, for some time before, members of the Press Gallery had also been reporting the same problems.

    Indeed, Kerry O’Brien had gone hard in an interview with Rudd along similar lines in May 2010. Refresh your memory @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RK3ncaxG308

    Gives the lie to those who claim that no one told the public etc about it! Worth while listening to Rudd’s excuses over the CPRS!Red Kez says to Kev, “You have squibbed this decision!”

  11. Thanks for the condolences

    A young life wasted

     

  12. If Rudd does lose which is the likley outcome he can go to the backbench and wreck even more havoc on JG. if he wants.to.

    What can they do to him,he is rich so he never has to worry about money, he could probably retire and write books or something or if labor disendorsed him at the next election he could probably run as a indie, and with his cash behind him probably win.

    imagine what he could do then!

  13. Hey guys

    Just checked Albo’s seat. The margin is not 20%. There was a 20% swing at the last election. Margin now 4.2%

  14. ii dont make excuses  for albo re numbers  re his seat  laook at the puctres above of young people just starting out..iam disgusted as i ever was no excuses, unless he  is a plant of sime description to’let rudd think he has more’votes.  albo should be showing examp,e  even he would k now an election would follow if rudd ever got up..

     

  15. victoria  i new that

  16. Sorry to hear about your loss J6P

  17. Victoria, I got the details from Adam Carr’s website:

       Division         State     Margin   Swing        Member elected
    008 Grayndler        NSW       20.6     -04.2        Hon Anthony Albanese * (ALP/Green 04.2)
  18. but look above at the’youngaters  well’thy re putting them selves’forward   for the’party   no excuses  albanese

  19. george

    Antony Green has a different result. Unless I am reading Green’s figures incorrectly. I am now utterley confused

  20. hi leonie  are u staying

  21. I’m presuming Adam is reporting the 2CP count for an ALP/Lib split.

  22. vic

    Depends if you look at two candidate preferred Albo v Greens

    or Two party preferred Albo v Libs

    Given that the Libs will preference the Greens last the TPP is the important one.

  23. j 6 pac k  so so sorry, , gee lifes hard

  24. Vic, just checked Green’s site – looks like he is right and the two numbers were incorrectly swapped in the text file I was using. I’ll make an adjustment

  25. ruawake

    I see what you mean, but if the Libs do what the did in Melbourne, the Greens could get up and tske Albo’s seat

  26. some one maylike to let SK and mari know where ee are through twitter

  27. I see what you mean, but if the Libs do what the did in Melbourne, the Greens could get up and tske Albo’s seat

    But they will not, they will do what they did in the Victorian State Election. The Green fantasy of taking inner city ALP seats is over.

  28. My Say
    I’m staying.

  29. so  what has albo proved    nothing ,

  30. good,

    geroge if the hun are saing 68 , is there more pictures u can put up please

  31. My Say

    Finns and George are only counting definite public numbers not whispers.

  32. Rua – cheers. So it stays at 20%

  33. joe  re rudd agreed-  itruly think he thinks and those around him think its like a presedential election  this has turned me back to not wanting a republic.

  34. thanks ru

  35. leone

    Repost your comment from PB. Re Rudd family as actors. it is a good post

  36. Re the identity of Greentard – this is a post from he addressed to Appleblossom at pollbludger.

    If you click on the it says ‘uploaded by Shows On‘  Proof?

    Greentard  post 2292 
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 2:11 am | Permalink

    I don’t intend on dancing for a living, so I don’t have to worry about that.

    You should try this dance:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwImKYGCSxI&list=UU325Xn_wQOk5Ej3yyurWwTw&index=1&feature=plcp]

  37. J6P my condolences to your family.

     

  38. MsAdventure,

    I’d say that was proof.  Anyway, that’s Bilbo’s problem – he’s the one who wanted a different PB.

  39. Msadventure

    Good job. His repetitive commentary was very familiar to that of showson as expressed by others

  40. J6P = Condolences on your loss.

  41. kimmaree_tweet
    @Schtang apparently Rudd camp have a paid social media team on the go, someone else mentioned the paid Facebook ad’s #MiniMeObama
    25/02/12 4:40 PM
  42. George

     

    His face keeps appearing in the sidebar of ads in Facebook. Caption is ‘Rudd for PM 2012.

  43. Thanks again for your kind words.

    drugs are a scourge on our society and at the moment I would do serious harm if i ran into a drug dealer.

    Saying that she was a great kid , but made wrong choices and ultimately paid a very heavy price.

    Her parents and siblings are devasted but all knew this was going to be the result one day.

    Life goes on and we will remember her for the good times .

    again thanks all

    now back to Rudd as a indie?

  44. Any reason why my posts keep double spacing? I hit enter once and get 2 spaces for the price of 1.

    Like this.

  45. Rudd as an indie is not credible.

    He wants to be PM not an MP.

  46. j6p

    Drugs are a frightening dynamic. Once you are in the web, it is hard to get out of it. Again, I am so sorry.

    Re Rudd as an Indie. I wish he would resign from the ALP. But as An Indie he cannot become President of Australia!!!

  47. Rudd as an indie is not credible.

    He wants to be PM not an MP.

    he wants revenge