Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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24.90 Mark Dreyfus (House of Reps) |
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23.90 Nicola Roxon (House of Reps) |
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22.60 Kate Ellis (House of Reps) |
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22.30 Harry Jenkins (House of Reps) |
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22.20 Brendan O’Connor (House of Reps) |
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22.20 John Murphy (House of Reps) |
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19.70 Laurie Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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17.10 Tanya Plibersek (House of Reps) |
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16.90 Bill Shorten (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Andrew Leigh (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Richard Marles (House of Reps) |
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13.90 Amanda Rishworth (House of Reps) |
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13.50 Simon Crean (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Sharon Bird (House of Reps) |
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12.90 Jenny Macklin (House of Reps) |
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12.70 Greg Combet (House of Reps) |
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12.50 Sharon Grierson (House of Reps) |
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12.10 Stephen Jones (House of Reps) |
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11.70 Catherine King (House of Reps) |
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11.50 Jason Clare (House of Reps) |
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11.00 Mark Butler (House of Reps) |
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10.80 Julia Gillard (House of Reps) |
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9.50 Steve Gibbons (House of Reps) |
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9.20 Gai Brodtmann (House of Reps) |
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9.10 Tony Burke (House of Reps) |
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8.80 Chris Hayes (House of Reps) |
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5.90 Stephen Smith (House of Reps) |
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5.80 Bernie Ripoll (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Steve Georganas (House of Reps) |
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5.40 Craig Emerson (House of Reps) |
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5.30 Rob Mitchell (House of Reps) |
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5.20 Peter Garrett (House of Reps) |
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4.40 Julie Collins (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Shayne Neumann (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Sid Sidebottom (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Warren Snowdon (House of Reps) |
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3.30 Gary Gray (House of Reps) |
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3.20 Wayne Swan (House of Reps) |
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2.70 Joel Fitzgibbon (House of Reps) |
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2.50 Yvette D’Ath (House of Reps) |
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1.80 Mike Symon (House of Reps) |
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1.50 Daryl Melham (House of Reps) |
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1.10 David Bradbury (House of Reps) |
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1.10 Graham Perrett (House of Reps) |
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1.00 Deb O’Neill (House of Reps) |
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0.90 Michael Danby (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Stephen Conroy (Senate) |
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0.00 Don Farrell (Senate) |
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0.00 David Feeney (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Arbib (Senate) |
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0.00 Jacinta Collins (Senate) |
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0.00 Christopher Evans (Senate) |
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0.00 Kate Lundy (Senate) |
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0.00 Jan McLucas (Senate) |
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0.00 Penny Wong (Senate) |
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0.00 Louise Pratt (Senate) |
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0.00 Lisa Singh (Senate) |
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0.00 Glenn Sterle (Senate) |
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0.00 Matt Thistlethwaite (Senate) |
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0.00 Catryna Bilyk (Senate) |
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0.00 Joe Ludwig (Senate) |
ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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20.60 Anthony Albanese (House of Reps) |
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20.00 Maria Vamvakinou (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Anthony Byrne (House of Reps) |
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12.30 Ed Husic (House of Reps) |
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12.20 Janelle Saffin (House of Reps) |
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12.00 Nick Champion (House of Reps) |
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8.10 Alan Griffin (House of Reps) |
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7.80 Chris Bowen (House of Reps) |
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7.70 Justine Elliot (House of Reps) |
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6.90 Robert McClelland (House of Reps) |
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6.80 Laura Smyth (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Martin Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Kevin Rudd (House of Reps) |
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0.40 Darren Cheeseman (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Ursula Stephens (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Bishop (Senate) |
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0.00 Kim Carr (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Furner (Senate) |
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0.00 Gavin Marshall (Senate) |
I’m here, been lurking for a while.
Disappointed in Albo, though. But I have enough respect for him to believe he personally had good reasons and wouldn’t go against his conscience.
As for Rudd… he’s lost me forever. Smarmy, uninspiring, vicious. Glad he won’t be winning on Monday. But what to do with him afterwards?
My Say,
I would think the numbers breakdown at the top is pretty spot on.
Caucus has made up its mind and this weekend is just noise.
Hawker cannot be too confident if he is hammering the “peoples choice ” angle I think.
The Pm was pretty cool and calm this morning.
All is good.
Just my own thoughts.
PatriciaWA
I hope you are right about Albo. I have been speaking to my mum and sister. Both have said that if there was a chance of Rudd resuming the leadershiip, the ALP will not be getting their vote. I am feeling the same way. We all did say that our votes would not go to the coalition either, but we are fast losing faith in the ALP
THE hun is saying 68 for Julia 28 The Traitor
Just been reading the other place. One post referred to a presser by Rudd in response to Albo’s decision. They said Rudd looks confident about Monday now? WTF!!!!!
canasta i wish george would put up the pictures
This from GG at the other place
This looks like it will play out reasonably well for Gillard and the Government. Having flushed Rudd out about his disloyalty, encouraged him to resign and forced an insipid Leadership challenge, the Government now has Rudd outside the Cabinet and what looks to me like every intention to stay in the Labor Party albeit as a bank bencher.
The soothing words of Albo and others today has taken the heat out of Monday’s battle. This gives Rudd the opportunity to lose with some public dignity. However, he still loses.
Sure he can claim to be the people’s Prince. However, the last one was Fatso the bigarsed wombat (who was equally loved and sought after during the Sydney Olympics) Where is he now?
My hope is that the Government will get some clear air to get on with their programme from now on. Reality may be somewhat different. But, at least Gillard will know it is not her own side throwing the bombs.
Rudd I hope will sit patiently on the backbench waisting to be elected Leader by acclamation of the Party. He’ll wait an awful long time.
Those spraying their anti Gillard invective will no doubt continue. But, I’ve moved on. I suggest they do too.
well who put the post there of course rudd is saying look over here change your mind, members may be dissapointed, but they will over it, , we all put people on pedestalls but quickly realise its us who put them there when they lset us down unless its family we move on albanese is just ather figure not the gov,
Living in Grayndler myself, I’d guess (and this is pure supposition) that the majority of Labor voters here would fall in the Gillard camp, given the demographics of the area.
yes i will miss GG
Bushfire,
Good to see that you have had a look at this site.
You are my go to “columnist”. I no longer read newspapers
There are some other bright people on PB who would be really welcome here away from the stirrers
Ha! Is it true Greentard is a room full of monkeys in front of keyboards in Menzies House? It would explain the round the clock unhinged postings.
Bushfire Bill,
So pleased to see you here. I’ve been going back to the other place mainly looking for that sulphur-crested avatar and read something that isn’t bullshit. Now we need to get OzPol and BK whose posts I also love to read.
BB
It is a very good question. What do they do with Rudd afterwards??
Jack Hawks
I am stil having trouble reconciling Albo’s: decision in my mind. It does not feel right to me. I was not in the least bit surprised with Bowen, and Ferguson, but Albo feels like a kick in the guts
Great to have you here, Bushfire Bill! I love your beautifully written, incisive and illuminating posts at the other place. Hope you can share them here too. I share your love of Abduls as well.
Victoria,
Me thinks they can find him a nice, comfortable straitjacket.
Jack, I’ve long suspected Greentard is just a dupe account for the user otherwise known as ShowsOn.
Albo’s decision has some kinda logic to it.
He wanted to vote for Rudd in 2010 but could not, he can now do it knowing Rudd will lose. It clears his conscience. .
ltep,
Interesting suspicion – does ShowsOn have a broken keyboard? There was someone posting there some time back with a broken keyboard and the same promise of getting a new one soon.
Victoria, as an ex-catholic myself, I can tell you that catholic guilt is an overpowering emotion, and that coupled with confused feelings of loyalty/disloyalty may well have preyed on his mind. It won’t make a difference to the result, but it will give Albo some peace of mind.
Just my take on it.
Hi BB, welcome to the sandpit
ruawake
Honeslty, i dont understand Albo at all. He was the one that told the journo to tell him to stop leaking. Him being Rudd or his supporters. His decision to support Rudd does not make sense to me
I apologise for some of my posts last night. I was a bit smashed after burying my niece .
rua,
Albo actually counselled Rudd not to go to a ballot in 2010 – no doubt protecting him from extreme humiliation. As I suggested to Albo in my email to him after his presser, he may think this will ease the pain in his guts but it will in fact replace it with another that may well hurt more.
Is ShowsOn a room full of monkeys…
Jack Hawks
I too am an Catholic, and I still dont get it.
Hey guys. Thought I would drop in.
j6p
I dont recall your posts being any to apologise for. In any event, my sincere condolences to you and your family
Ah but the force is strong with this one, Victoria.
(By the way, carn the Hawks!)
j6p,
Oh dear, I’m so sorry – please accept my condolences.
Hi gweneth
Good to see you here!!
Janice, the broken keyboard schtick Is just ShowsOn’s weird sense of humour.
saw rudd on skynews doing a walkthrough of the mall in brissie, was like the 07 campaign again all smiles and not 1 objection
Jack Hawks
So you have taken your name from the Hawthorn Footy Club.
ltep,
Okay, you are probably right. He certainly does have a weird sense of humour.
Rudd would be better off trying to convince his colleagues to vote for him, rather than wandering around Brisbane.
Rudd would be better off trying to convince his colleagues to vote for him, rather than wandering around Brisbane.
I think that is exactly what he was doing rua, saying look at how popular i am with the voters.
A MUST read! RT @AndrewCatsaras: The always sensible George Megalogenis with another splendid piece: http://t.co/GCPU9qUy
25/02/12 3:26 PM
I’m a (nominal) member of the Left in Labor, but I still support Gillard.
The reason being that Julia is following a tried and true strategy in winning the next election.
That is, get the difficult stuff out of the way in year 1, which comes at the cost of bad polling, but she has achieved in face of huge adversity.
At the moment, we are in Year 2, which is the year we consolidate the government and the economy in preparation for the years ahead. A good mixture of popular decisions like the NBN and the MRRT, and unpopular decisions like the price paid for the surplus budget in May. (While I don’t think a surplus is really necessary, I do agree that it’s a political victory the ALP needs right now).
And the third year is when we’ll break through with the most successful developed economy in the world combined with benefits that will make each and every citizen of this nation better off; which will sweep away the hollow rhetoric of the opposition.
I do not think it is a good idea to abandon this strategy in this situation, where the Independents that support us are clearly growling against any change and that the alternate leader has been undermining this government for many months and expects to be rewarded for it; and his only alternative for Gillard’s solid achievements is more hollow rhetoric.
You go, Julia. Make us proud for many decades to come.
This again from GG at the other place
BH,
Albo spoke to the PM and offerred his resignation. This was extremely good form and again highlights class vis a vis Rudd and his sudden decision to resign in the middle of the night in another continent without even a courtesy call to the PM.
From Rudd’s comments earlier on Sky, he seems genuinely chuffed at the albo comments and said there was not a dry eye in the Rudd household. Rudd seems to have jumped on it as a genuine show of support and as I said takes the heat out and gives him a chance to lose and retire somewhat gracefully to the backbench.
Regardless, Gillard has also won again becuase she showed such support for Albo and his decision. So arguments about facion bashings and threats to careers from the Rudd camp have been completely undermined.
Good result for Labor.
Just a thought but could Rudd be angling for a snap election should he win the spill?
Do I detect a high stakes game of teaxs hold em ?
Who appear to be mostly journos: yfrog.com/oc76tpnj
Who appear to be mostly journos: yfrog.com/oc76tpnj
what i saw on sky was him walking through the mall with ordinary shoppers . Not too many jurnos
I asked BH about Albo suppposedly being in a marginal seat
Her response
Albo is not in a marginal seat is he? I thought he was in a very safe seat
very marginal at the moment, victoria. He’s under threat from the Greens. It is an inner western Sydney seat with lots of young professional/Green voters, many of the Gay community to. Same thing in Tanya Plibersek’s seat which is next to Albo’s. Hers is marginal as well and under threat.
Yep, that’s right, Victoria. Have my 2008 Grannie ticket framed.
(Apologies all for off-topic aside)
Rua,
I think Rudd knows that he’s probably got all the support he can squeeze out of caucus. He’s got it in his head that he use his popularity among the bogans to sway another caucus vote or two to him.
Jack Hawks
It was a very sweet victory. OH and son went to the game,- and they were very confident of winning. Memorable day!
Hey Joe, terribly sorry to hear of your loss. You know we all send out very best to you.
BB.
Bushfire Bill speaks for many of us.
I think Albo knows he has to be there and to say the things he has said. Both he and the Prime Minister have behaved impeccably throughout this upheaval.. We know that we can trust these two people to put their conscience first in deciding how best to serve the Australian Labor Party . This is the kind of leadership the ALP needs. It will give Caucus members the confidence to vote with similar conviction on Monday.
I am sure they will make the right decision. Then we can move on.