Final Call: PM Gillard 77 Rudd 25
No bull, no guessing – we are the Dolphins – The Finnigans (The beautiful photos were done by @GeorgeBludger) - Michelle Rowland will not vote tomorrow, so the total will be: 102, not 103.
Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown. The question is how will the Unknowns break. Sportsbet is reporting the odds of PM Gillard $1.11 Rudd $6.25. Based on that we took the conservative approach and say the Unknowns will be break 70:30 to PM Gillard’s favour. This will give PM Gillard additional 16 votes to 77 and Rudd 6 votes to 25. That is our final call: 77 to 25
ALP Members For Julia Gillard PM – 61 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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24.90 Mark Dreyfus (House of Reps) |
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23.90 Nicola Roxon (House of Reps) |
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22.60 Kate Ellis (House of Reps) |
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22.30 Harry Jenkins (House of Reps) |
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22.20 Brendan O’Connor (House of Reps) |
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22.20 John Murphy (House of Reps) |
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19.70 Laurie Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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17.10 Tanya Plibersek (House of Reps) |
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16.90 Bill Shorten (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Andrew Leigh (House of Reps) |
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14.20 Richard Marles (House of Reps) |
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13.90 Amanda Rishworth (House of Reps) |
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13.50 Simon Crean (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Sharon Bird (House of Reps) |
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12.90 Jenny Macklin (House of Reps) |
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12.70 Greg Combet (House of Reps) |
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12.50 Sharon Grierson (House of Reps) |
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12.10 Stephen Jones (House of Reps) |
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11.70 Catherine King (House of Reps) |
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11.50 Jason Clare (House of Reps) |
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11.00 Mark Butler (House of Reps) |
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10.80 Julia Gillard (House of Reps) |
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9.50 Steve Gibbons (House of Reps) |
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9.20 Gai Brodtmann (House of Reps) |
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9.10 Tony Burke (House of Reps) |
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8.80 Chris Hayes (House of Reps) |
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5.90 Stephen Smith (House of Reps) |
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5.80 Bernie Ripoll (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Steve Georganas (House of Reps) |
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5.40 Craig Emerson (House of Reps) |
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5.30 Rob Mitchell (House of Reps) |
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5.20 Peter Garrett (House of Reps) |
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4.40 Julie Collins (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Shayne Neumann (House of Reps) |
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4.20 Sid Sidebottom (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Warren Snowdon (House of Reps) |
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3.30 Gary Gray (House of Reps) |
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3.20 Wayne Swan (House of Reps) |
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2.70 Joel Fitzgibbon (House of Reps) |
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2.50 Yvette D’Ath (House of Reps) |
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1.80 Mike Symon (House of Reps) |
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1.50 Daryl Melham (House of Reps) |
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1.10 David Bradbury (House of Reps) |
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1.10 Graham Perrett (House of Reps) |
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1.00 Deb O’Neill (House of Reps) |
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0.90 Michael Danby (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Stephen Conroy (Senate) |
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0.00 Don Farrell (Senate) |
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0.00 David Feeney (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Arbib (Senate) |
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0.00 Jacinta Collins (Senate) |
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0.00 Christopher Evans (Senate) |
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0.00 Kate Lundy (Senate) |
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0.00 Jan McLucas (Senate) |
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0.00 Penny Wong (Senate) |
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0.00 Louise Pratt (Senate) |
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0.00 Lisa Singh (Senate) |
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0.00 Glenn Sterle (Senate) |
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0.00 Matt Thistlethwaite (Senate) |
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0.00 Catryna Bilyk (Senate) |
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0.00 Joe Ludwig (Senate) |
ALP Members For Kevin Rudd – 19 (out of 102)
Ordered by Seat Margin
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20.60 Anthony Albanese (House of Reps) |
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20.00 Maria Vamvakinou (House of Reps) |
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13.20 Anthony Byrne (House of Reps) |
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12.30 Ed Husic (House of Reps) |
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12.20 Janelle Saffin (House of Reps) |
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12.00 Nick Champion (House of Reps) |
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8.10 Alan Griffin (House of Reps) |
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7.80 Chris Bowen (House of Reps) |
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7.70 Justine Elliot (House of Reps) |
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6.90 Robert McClelland (House of Reps) |
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6.80 Laura Smyth (House of Reps) |
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5.70 Martin Ferguson (House of Reps) |
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3.70 Kevin Rudd (House of Reps) |
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0.40 Darren Cheeseman (House of Reps) |
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0.00 Ursula Stephens (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Bishop (Senate) |
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0.00 Kim Carr (Senate) |
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0.00 Mark Furner (Senate) |
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0.00 Gavin Marshall (Senate) |
Ian
Sadly i agree with you. The way i feel right now.
ALP _ RIP
Frank
What do you mean at comment 50?
Hawker telling Julia to withdraw cos the polls want Rudd.
Hawker is the ultimate Faceless Man
Agree Frank, and Ian, I wouldn’t be so hard on Albo. He is not the villain in this. Let’s hope when Monday comes and goes there is some way to get back to the business of selling all the good Labor has done thus far.
Frank
I believe Albo will sway votes Rudd’s way. Hedi not help resolve this at all.
I am having a lot of trouble trying to understand everything. Either I am missing a strategy, or Labor is going to hell in a hand basket. Sorry to be so pessimistic, but that is how I feel
What an Arrogant Prick:
The other place are coping with Albo’s decision. Unlike me
Albanese’s decision is not surprising in the slightest and changes nothing.
Itep
I am gutted. Can you make sense of it for me because i cant?
Ian, what was the addy for Albo? I want to send him an email but I won’t sound as angry as you :lol:
Erm the fools at the other place are banging on about Albo’s Tight Margin – piffle:
Is not atight margin.
Fsctional politics I’d guess Victoria. But I’m really not in the know in any sense. There will probably be a series of more high profile pro-Rudd announcements staged over the next day to try and build a sense of swelling support for Rudd. I’d guess most of this will come from the hard left. This is all my uneducated opinion of course
I do not fear for the Labor Party, it has survived and prospered after going through worse. It has been around a long time and will be around for longer still. Get some perspective. The fight against the tea-party nutters taking over conservative politics in all corners of the globe is going to be messy and vitriolic and progressives need to view this lastest stoush in terms of the long haul, not just today’s crisis.
Gird your loins people, this is going to get worse before it gets better.
Itep
Albo said his own faction was going with Gillard. No i see Albo’s decision in a different context.
Anyhow my faith in the ALP to succeed at the moment is very slim
Victoria, I think Albo feels he has to right a past wrong which has been a pain in his gut since Rudd got the boot. He does not realise that by voting for Rudd won’t wash that paid away because Rudd’s treachery will replace it. I’m glad Julia understands him and refused his resignation.
Puffy
You said it. It is going to get worse. That is why i am so pessimistic
Victoria,
I am not an expert on ALP history, but the DLP split must have been the worst thing that happened to them and people must have thought it was the end of the Party forever. Today the ALP is in government.
16. victoria says: February 25, 2012 at 9:49 am (Edit) . Puffy You said it. It is going to get worse. That is why i am so pessimistic EditDelete
Talk like that will get you banned :-)
Toughen Up Woman :-)
thant’s an ORDER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Puffy, agree with you.
janice
Of course Julia did the right thing in not accepting his resignation. I fail to see how the party will unite after Monday. Sorry to sound so down. Yesrerday I was confident. Today I am deflated
Thanks Frank. I will do my best. Just in a funk right now.
Alb o’s votwe was NOT the Game Changer the media are concentrating on.
THIS is the Game Changer amongst the Caucus:
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-must-abandon-leadership-hawker-20120225-1turw.html#ixzz1nM0tyzSc
Vic, do what I’m about to do – go out to your local cafe, have a coffee, something to eat, talk some crap with the locals, enjoy being alive
I’m disappointed by Albo’s decision…but not gutted. Of Rudd’s declared supporters he’s the only one I’ve heard that has tried to reach a very difficult decision based on his convictions about Labor values of Loyalty/Respect/Integrity/and Fairness.
These qualities have been sadly lacking in some of the reasons given by other Rudd supporters…my regard for him is not diminished & neither is Julias’
I have to say that his reasoning appeared somewhat confused…talking about how wrong it is to challenge a sitting/elected PM & yet saying he supports Rudd who is doing exactly that. His rationale for “righting a previous wrong” by committing another wrong didn’t ring true to me.
He also said wtte it is important to look to the future…yet he was clearly advocating a return to the past.
All in all, I suspect there will be minimal movement, if any, in votes for either Rudd or Julia…
Julia will prevail…and Albo will become one of her trusty lieutenants fighting the good fight on behalf of Labor…..Go Julia!!!
frank Calabrese
Albo’s decision is a contradictory one. It could sway votes. The pledges made are not locked in. He could have kept the decision to himself until Monday morning. What is the strategy because i fail to see Albo’s decision as being one of unity for the party after Monday.
Dont ban me okay?
The bottom line is that anyone who supports Rudd is condoning his deliberate destabilisation of the ALP Govt over at least the last 12 months.
george
I am not going out as it is too hot!! But I will go and forget about politics for a while
Markjs
Thanks for your optimistic post!
victoria….you’re welcome…keep your chin up….
Come on people Albo has always been Faulkner’s boy. I don’t understand why they would do this but theywould always vote together.
Sensible post from the other place
So Albanese has announced he will back Rudd, apparently on the grounds that Rudd can win the next election (debatable but driven by current polling) and because he did not like the way Rudd was deposed by the Right factional powerbrokers in June 2010 and is now taking the opportunity to register his disapproval (strange rationale).
There are more likely other reasons. Albanese is from the Left, and like Faulkner, wants to smash the power of the Right, which is where much of Gillard’s support is at present. Backing Rudd is in reality a factional power move on behalf of the Left, and nothing to do with preferring Rudd personally.
However, Rudd has already said he will effectively re-instate the power-brokers that he earlier dismissed in deciding his ministry. It means that once again factional power, not talent, will determine who gets what. Is this the way to reform?
Another consequence is that there will be fewer women in any Rudd cabinet, simply by reason of the numbers and distribution, and the fact that senior women have already indicated that they cannot tolerate Rudd’s management style.
And finally, Albanese cannot really guarantee that Rudd will advance party reform so as to deliver more power to the Left faction. To the contrary, so far, it would appear that Rudd is prepared to deal with anyone, including dropping the carbon price, who will advance his own personal power.
Nowhere in these power machinations is any coherent policy platform from the Left or the Right clearly discernable. Dark waters.
I don’t think we should be condemming what way individual members are voting in this, IMO in all but very very few cases are only acting with the best intentions of the ALP and Government at heart
markjs,
I agree with you post at 24 above and it is pretty much what I said to Albo in my email to him. I remain optimistic that Labor will come out of this well enough to regroup and continue giving good government.
well i am dumbfounded and shocked what a charade of a life he has been livi g
Janice@10/page12
A.Albanese.MP@aph.gov.au
George@4/page12
I think that next to the PM Albanese is, arguably , the most effective parlimentary performer.
In any hor debate from now on when the PM or indeed Albanese are making points the opposition will just ask a simple question….”.How can the l.o.t.h express such faith in a PM he voted against in a ballot of confidence?” or ” Does the PM fully trust the l.o.t.h. in this case. Given we know the vote he recently cast expressed his mistrust of her and, obviously, her illegitimacy.”
The is no prize for guessing which will be the nightly news grab, or the attack line of the Bolts, Shanahans and others.
Albanese didn’t think and he has just bought a world of grief on both the PM and himself. He is a fool.
Ian
Hence my disappointment with his decision. He should have abstained as LOTH. It would have been a better look. At every turn they create a rod for their back. simon Crean is spot on about the Party.
but move on folks no , let the old garde go but talk about two faced. the way he stoodb up forh julia in qt well i hope they all leave next election we need new people . when u think about albanese was not big on policy so what was that about leaking, o well no goog going over old grou d , i bet menzies mob b is giving heaps On pb
My Say, when you finish typing your post, don’t add all those returns (the return or enter key on your keyboard), otherwise it adds all that unnecessary space. Cheers
Ian,
Yes, I know Albo will cop it from the Opposition benches but he will just have to wear the consequences of his decision and so will we :cry: There is still a chance he will rethink his decision before Monday.
well therewill be others of course , even when the numbers are stacked against rudd,,
but notice withthe exception of a few its the old ones good rddence
Victoria and My Say, before we condemn Albo completely, and maybe one of two others like Bowen, is it possible that they have to be there for Rudd to think he is in with a bit more than a chance? That ballot needs to be held on Monday and both challengers must show. I’m happy now just to wait and see.
The MPs I’m most furious with are McCLelland and Carr – both of them stupidly think the only thing of importance is popularity in the polls. Neither of them have much between the ears it turns out, but after Monday and the subsequent reshuffle, Julia is stuck with them or she’ll be accuse of punishing them for voting against her.
gerge i dont know what u mean- please can we leave bemused at tje other place
sorry albo got full barrell fre betrayed the trust we placed in him as leader of the house
has any o e got any nubers but as iam being yelled here a well whats the pooint
My Say, see your post at No.43 above – you have about 3 lines between your sentences. That’e because you are hitting the carriage return several times after each sentence – just hit the return key ONCE between sentences/paragraphs, no need to do it several times.
What a great blog you all have put together, congrats to all the creators.
I am gutted that Albo has gone to the Rudd camp, it could be that he will be the honest broker between the two camps after the vote. He will be a good bridge between the two factions and will have clout in both. i hope that is their thinking,a sacrifice if you will from the PM’s camp.
I have no real idea why Albo did what he did.
I do respect him and accept his decision.
I think it is a very good move for the PM not to accept his resignation. A positive decision. She is very confident.
As well, Albo will stand up and do his job for the government and will be seen as a uniting figure.
” The party has had its differences but we have put them behind us. A democratic process was undertaken and no consequences from individual voting decisions despite what some have claimed.”
Works for me.
Would the PM drop Mr Carr especially with the Holden decision coming up and with the focus on the manufacturing sector ? He is out of cabinet and cannot do much harm. Would also be seen as a good uniting move perhaps.
One thing that is obvious is the rubbish that has been sprouted in the DT and other News papers about the cabinet being split down the middle. I count 5 including Mr Rudd. Not really split down the middle.
Those that have declared for the PM did so before Albo’s announcement. They will stick.
Take a deep breath and keep faith. The Pm will win and win well.
PatriciaWA,
I put that idea out yesterday or the day before, I think. However, Rudd announced he was definitely challenging whereas prior to that it was likely he’d cut and run. I have no idea why Bowen is going with Rudd, although it is on the record that he was a Rudd supporter. It just gets to me that they actually support the undermining he’s been doing and is threatening all their hard work.
I just went to have a look in at the other place. I could only stand reading one page – won’t be going back even for curiosity’s sake. Wish Bushfire and OzPol and BK would come over here.
typing on this key board here geroge i could see nothing till i got to, board so idont know where iam up to is it android, only happens hete
wtats the numbers doyley,,, any updates re the pm